Rebuild is over Richard Griffin’s take on how the boss and his Jays will fare this year,
Rebuilding talk over as fewer than 85 wins will be seen as a failure
The Blue Jays have reached the point of no return.
The rebuilding talk should be over.
Sure, some of the final pieces of a future championship are still in the minors, being shaped and trained to become keys to the final product. GM Alex Anthopoulos knows who they are. This year, the Jays have a chance to win if everything goes right. Next year, they must use the winter to compete with the best.
The Jays in 2012 already are ranked among the AL’S top seven teams. Since there are five AL playoff berths up for grabs, with a second wild-card spot on the table, the raw numbers in that situation tell you the Jays are in the mix.
The Jays, according to experts, are unmistakably a contender moving forward. They are not quite as strong or major-league ready-deep as Anthopoulos had hoped coming out of the off-season. But whether the fan base wants to accept it or not, even without Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish, Mat Latos or Gio Gonzalez, the Jays are contenders.
Fewer than 85 wins will be a failure.
Why choose 85 wins as the target, you ask? The fact is that 85 victories is what they accomplished in 2010 and this is a better team than the one fielded in Cito Gaston’s final season.
On the 2010 Jays, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil were already in the rotation but were still learning. They are more established now, although Cecil posted a stunning 15 wins out of nowhere. The other starters were Marc Rzepczynski, Jesse Litsch and Dana Eveland. On that 2010 team, the most games played at each position were: C John Buck, 1B Lyle Overbay, 2B Aaron Hill, 3B Edwin Encarnacion, SS Alex Gonzalez, LF Fred Lewis, CF Vernon Wells, RF Jose Bautista and DH Adam Lind. The closer was Kevin Gregg. This year’s team is better at almost every position, with only three of those still in the lineup, and only Bautista at the same position. And the fact is that 2010 team won 85 games under a manager many fans feel was merely on a victory lap. Maybe Gaston actually did know how to manage majorleague players. The other six teams in the current AL mix, adding up to seven contenders for the 2012 playoffs, are the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Tigers, Rangers and Angels. The predicted range of victories for the Jays is still fairly wide. Positives depend on the rebound of Cecil, Colby Rasmus, Lind and Kelly Johnson, and the season-long good health of Romero and Bautista. Maybe a 2008 Rays’ success story? How about Jays’ team payroll? The perception is the Jays were reluctant to spend money this year. Let’s examine the numbers for 2012 and moving forward. The top six most expensive players on Toronto’s roster are Bautista ($14 million); Johnson ($6.375M); Romero ($5.25M); Lind and Yunel Escobar ($5M). The total team payroll for the expected 25-man roster, plus a disabled Litsch, a released Mark Teahen and a farmed out Adeiny Hechavarria is about $84 million, the second-highest payroll in club history. The highest payroll was $98 million in 2008, when they went 86-76 but watched with envy as the tail lights of the small-market Rays headed to the World Series. That Rays success was too much for Rogers ownership, who immediately ordered J.P. Ricciardi to cut bait and get back to his promise of competing on a budget. The following year, having lopped $17 million off the payroll, Ricciardi spent the season publicly complaining to the U.S. media and was fired after a disappointing 75-87 season.
Right now, moving forward, Anthopoulos already has solid ideas of how much money he will be able to spend next season and still remain around $84 million.
The Jays will have seven free agents at the end of 2012, including Francisco Cordero, Carlos Villanueva and Jason Frasor in the bullpen; second baseman Johnson; DH Encarnacion; starter Dustin Mcgowan and catcher Jeff Mathis. The savings from those contracts, if they all leave, is just over $28 million, while the extra payroll for next year’s players under multiyear contracts is about $16.7 million.
The big question remains: will ownership realistically keep the Jays on the front burner if the team only manages a .500 finish or less? Or will the bloom be off the Anthopoulos rose and will Rogers change the rules again for their GM, not because of any gaffes, but because of their yet-to-be-approved purchase of their far more glamorous MLSE sports property?
The vibe coming out of Florida from scouts and opposing teams is that the 2012 Jays are a team on the rise.
Next winter, if Anthopoulos can use some of the depth of minorleague pitching to fill a couple of needs, that might provide the final pieces of the puzzle. Of course, that’s what he wanted to do this winter and couldn’t get it done. But if you don’t hack away, you’ll never hit a home run, right?