High hopes in the clubhouse
The Jays are right to dream big as season opens — they’ve got talent. But things still have to break right,
It’s been a long time since the Blue Jays have opened a season with as much exuberance and optimism inside their clubhouse. The feeling started even before the announcement of the second wild card and stems from a belief that the AL East division can be had. It used to be the Jays’ front office trumpeting the club’s ability to contend. This time it’s the players. They are more talented than any team since the arrival of GM Alex Anthopoulos to his post. But things need to fall right.
Following are five questions that might determine whether these Jays can contend: 1. Will the No. 4 and 5 spots in the rotation, to be filled by Kyle Drabek and Joel Carreno to start the season, be able to match up all year with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays?
Each of the past three seasons has seen an average of almost 12 starting pitchers toe the rubber for the Jays. So Drabek and Carreno only own the pole positions at the start of the marathon of horsehide hope.
Judging by recent history, six more pitchers will be coming up to fill in behind the Big Three of Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Henderson Alvarez.
But this is not how the Jays thought it would start. They had a winter Plan A, but then lost Dustin Mcgowan to right-foot plantar fasciitis and Brett Cecil to left-arm strike-zone non-commandus. All of a sudden some experts have begun to leap off the bandwagon.
The 4-5 spots will make about 60 starts, so to compete, they must be counted on to log about 360 innings and win 20 games in starts not made by the Big Three. Tough call. 2. Will the Jays’ Bermuda Triangle of hitting — Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind and J.P. Arencibia — struggle early and swallow up possible victories that will never be recovered, or will they emerge as legitimate on-base machines giving the Jays top-to-bottom depth?
The Jays promote their top-to-bottom depth. Who would have thought Arencibia’s defensive abilities would be less of a question mark than his offence? Sure, a power hitter is a power hitter, but J.P.’S rookie on-base percentage of .282 just won’t cut it. The 26-year-old showed encouraging signs in the spring, driving the ball the other way and staying within the strike zone.
As for Lind, after a .932 OPS in 2009, he dropped to .712 and .734 the past two seasons, with an onbase mark under .300 each year. He needs to stay healthy and bump up the relentlessness of his at-bats. Rasmus remains an enigma. Can all the major-league scouts be wrong? 3. Jays fans do, but will MLB fans still love Jose Bautista and will the twotime home run champ be able to top 40 homers, 110 RBIS and 120 walks, with or without proper protection?
Bautista’s numbers dropped off in the second half last season after he was the top vote-getter for the allstar game. Will MLB fans show him the same love the second time around if his numbers aren’t quite there? More importantly for the Jays, can Bautista avoid the frustration that saw him become less disciplined at the plate in an attempt to carry the team on his shoulders? It would help if he had help.
Fact is, if the Jays win more than 85 games and Bautista leads the way, this would become his best chance to win the AL MVP honours that eluded him in 2010 and 2011, when he finished fourth and third, respectively. Already, Jays fans know that with the presence of his personality across all demographics, he should be a frontrunner for MVP, even before looking at statistics. 4. Will the undervalued and emerging Alvarez join the Big Two of Romero and Morrow to become a trio that could lead the Jays into contention?
The 21-year-old Venezuelan made it to the majors and into the September rotation on the basis of a sinking two-seam fastball and a devastating changeup. Now there is more.
This spring, pitching coach Bruce Walton noticed that Alvarez had two distinct speeds on his changeup and he has worked with the pitcher on learning how to throw them intentionally and with command. The slower change has more sink away from lefties. He’s gaining more weapons.
If Alvarez can learn to control his expanded arsenal, it might make him the equal of Romero and Morrow at the top of the Jays’ rotation. 5. How much time will Francisco Cordero be given before the Jays realize that Casey Janssen is the better option for the eighth-inning setup role?
One of the strengths of the Jays’ bullpen is the number of pitchers who could perform the role of No. 1 setup man. Early in the spring, manager John Farrell insisted that newcomer Cordero, because of his success as a closer (five straight seasons of 34-plus saves), would handle the eighth-inning role himself. There would be no mixing and matching with lefty Darren Oliver to squeeze three outs before handing things over to closer Sergio Santos. How long will that order last?
Cordero has worked hard and deserves that respect — right now. But will there come a time when Janssen, who over the past two seasons has gained in health, confidence and success, is the type of durable bulldog suited to that role?
Cordero continues to morph from a high-velocity power pitcher into a strike-throwing, rock-paper-scissors veteran with guile. Other Jays who could eventually be in the eighthinning mix are Oliver, Jason Frasor and Carlos Villanueva.
We’ve seen seasons when a certain team went from .500 to the postseason, but everything needs to go right. But, hey, that’s what opening day is all about, optimism and eternal sunshine. Happy opener.