Battle lines drawn
Mark Zwolinski analyzes where each Jay stands heading into 2013
STARTING PITCHERS
BRANDON MORROW: Should be the ace and opening day starter. Needs to stay healthy, pitch a bit more to contact, and just prove over a full season what he’s shown in spurts the past two.
RICKY ROMERO: His ace status isn’t gone; it is in question. He should bounce back.
HENDERSON ALVAREZ: He was told after the first inning in New York last week to get more aggressive with his changeup and fastball. Alvarez can easily be a double-digit winner if his mental focus is there. If not, it will be up to the coaching staff to get him right. No more excuses in 2013. He has the stuff to be very good. His status could drop from No. 3 to No. 4, though, if the Jays sign a veteran arm as expected.
J.A. HAPP: If they bring him back, and there’s good reason to, he will be given a serious look to fill the fifth hole.
CARLOS VILLANUEVA: Same as above, but he’s free-agent eligible and likely to explore the market before committing anywhere.
AARON LAFFEY: Proved useful filling in for injured starters. Was on a minor league contract in the spring, making $800,000 at the major league level. He is arbitration eligible, which may spell the end for him in Toronto.
DREW HUTCHISON: Had a spot nailed down this year, but that won’t be repeated. Should start in Triple-A Buffalo when he recovers fully from elbow surgery.
KYLE DRABEK: Also coming off elbow surgery, he should start in Buffalo and work himself into a solid option as an injury call-up.
RELIEF PITCHERS
CASEY JANSSEN: He’ll be back, but it’s questionable whether he’ll be the closer. Depends on the health of Sergio Santos, who reportedly will be ready for spring training.
SERGIO SANTOS: See above, but he has a long way to come back from shoulder surgery. Signed through 2014 with club options for three more years.
DARREN OLIVER: Same as Villanueva: see what’s out there on the freeagent market and choose.
BRETT CECIL: Will be in tough next year, but if Oliver and Villanueva leave, the Jays will be in need of a swingman and Cecil is a good option there.
JASON FRASOR: Free agent eligible and a serviceable, reliable veteran, but the Jays will likely part ways with him.
STEVE DELABAR: Has the swingand-miss stuff needed in late innings. Acquired from Seattle for Eric Thames and was on a one-year, $480,000 deal. Should get a qualifying offer.
BRAD LINCOLN: Acquired for Travis Snider, same outlook as Delabar.
AARON LOUP: Unique delivery and stuff for a lefty. Should start in Triple-A and be on speed dial if an opening crops up.
BRANDON LYON: Along with Delabar and Lincoln, helped reshape relief corps after deal with Houston. Should be entrenched for 2013.
JOEL CARRENO: Will bounce between minors and majors again.
CHAD BECK: Likely to start at Triple-A Buffalo.
DAVID CARPENTER: Another solid citizen like Beck, Carreno and Loup, but there’s only so much room. Buffalo will be a holding pen for the overflow guys.
LUIS PEREZ: Should be back once he’s recovered fully from elbow surgery.
CATCHERS
J.P. ARENCIBIA: Questions about his defensive game and rumours that he could be moved to make room for prospect Travis d’Arnaud, But J.P.A. is the best hitting catcher the Jays have. Over 95 per cent of his homers have come off the breaking ball, too. He’s a proven run producer and you don’t shed a catcher who can hit like that. Should be back at No. 1.
JEFF MATHIS: Solid backup signed a three-year extension.
TRAVIS D’ARNAUD: It’s likely he’ll at least start the season in Buffalo.
FIRST BASEMEN
ADAM LIND: His production and fitness came into question, so he’s now halfway out the door instead of halfway in. Management called Lind “not a sure bet” for 2013. He will make $5 million next year, with club options for $6 million, $7.5 million and $8 million the next three seasons. Hard to have him in Buffalo and pay that much money. Buyout possible if he has another off year. Free-agent Nick Swisher would be a great replacement.
EDWIN ENCARNACION: Core player, either at DH or first base.
DAVID COOPER: Another prospect who is well liked but not in picture if Jays retool for a serious run.
SECOND BASEMEN
KELLY JOHNSON: Should become a free agent. Decent walk total but on pace for Jays single-season strikeout record. Tampa free-agent-to-be Jeff Keppinger would be a great fit.
ADEINY HECHAVARRIA: Of the big three prospects — with Anthony Gose and Moises Sierra — he is the most major league ready. Not a surprise if he makes the roster out of training camp.
SHORTSTOPS
YUNEL ESCOBAR: Huge question mark: Can he produce in Toronto after his homophobic slur? Does Hechavarria take his place? He has club options for 2014-15 and is the only shortstop they have with a proven bat at the major league level. Many believe Escobar is a goner. Pirates and Diamondbacks have scouted Jays shortstops but they all want Hechavarria.
HECHAVARRIA: A big risk offensively on a team that can’t afford risk, but the Jays want him in the big leagues in 2013. The only thing blocking him is Escobar and the club is expected to do something about that situation.
THIRD BASE
BRETT LAWRIE: He’s back, obviously, but he can offer so much more. Allstar and Gold Glover in waiting?
YAN GOMES: Did a nice job this season, but he’ll be back in Triple-A. OUTFIELDERS
JOSE BAUTISTA: Just wish him a full recovery and good health for 2013 — and don’t tick him off by doing nothing of significance to retool the club this off-season.
COLBY RASMUS: Back in centre, but needs to bring more consistency to his offence.
RAJAI DAVIS: Fourth or fifth outfielder who will be back for his speed.
ANTHONY GOSE: Still has to polish his batting. Should start in Triple-A Buffalo.
MOISES SIERRA: Possibly a fourth outfielder unless the Jays land someone like B.J. Upton.
MIKE MCCOY: Gotta love this guy. He should continue his career here as a utility call-up.
COACHING STAFF
JOHN FARRELL: Has one year left on his contract and should be back. Plenty of talk about his Boston connection and whether there is enough respect in the clubhouse, in the wake of the Escobar controversy. Jays management will have to clean that up and owes that much to Farrell.
BRUCE WALTON: An excellent soldier for the last decade and knows every pitcher extremely well. Should be back.
BRIAN BUTTERFIELD: Was reportedly up for the manager’s post in Houston, which went to Bo Porter. Does he jump to Buck Showalter’s staff in Baltimore, as has been the rumour since last fall? He’s due to run his own show, but he’d be a huge loss.
DWAYNE MURPHY: Likely to have Triple-A hitting coach Chad Mottola on board as an assistant. The two-man set-up works well on other teams.
TOREY LOVULLO: Interviewed for the Red Sox job and is likely to once again if that spot opens up. Another solid major league coach due for a promotion.
DON WAKAMATSU: Should be back as Farrell’s bench coach.
LUIS RIVERA: Should be on the field full time next year.
PETE WALKER: Will be back as bullpen coach and a valuable source of experience for Walton and Farrell.
PAT HENTGEN: A pitching coach in waiting, but uncertainty over whether he can coach full time.