Turkey’s calls for help unanswered
UN, NATO sympathetic, but offer no military action against Syria
A year ago Turkey was flying high: confident of its muscular role in the Middle Eastern region, and optimistic about its “soft power” diplomacy. Now it has come down to earth with a thud, mired in a war not of its own choosing, its efforts for stability stymied, and its risk of a larger conflict looming.
The Syrian mortar attack that killed a family of five in a Turkish border village Wednesday prompted swift retaliation from Ankara. It launched artillery attacks on Syria and parliament quickly approved the use of cross-border raids, although the government had little appetite for escalation.
But as Syria’s brutal civil war grinds on — with border skirmishes between the Assad regime and opposition rebels and desperate refugees fleeing toward Turkey — none of Turkey’s options look good.
“Turkey needs this (the civil war in Syria) to end,” said Howard Eissenstat, of St. Lawrence University in New York state, an expert in Turkish politics. “But it doesn’t want to go it alone.”
That’s a huge problem for the government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Ergodan. “The Turks have made lots of phone calls to international organizations,” said Houchang Hassan-Yari, of the Royal Military College of Canada. “They seem to be rallying public opinion for future action.”
Turkey’s first stop was the UN Security Council, delivering a letter calling the Syrian mortar attack an “act of aggression” and a “flagrant violation” of international law — phrases that could open the door to the use of international force against Syria under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. Syria says it was a regrettable accident, and expressed condolences. A sharply-worded UN Security Council statement, issued late Thursday, condemned Syria’s actions as “violations of international law” with an “impact” on regional peace and stability. But the council will go no farther because Syrian allies China and Russia would block any military action. In recent months, Turkey has pleaded for the UN to back a no-fly zone that would create a safe haven for displaced people inside Syria — but could also become an opposition base. After Wednesday’s border attack, Turkey called on NATO, of which it is a member. Under NATO’s rules, an attack on any member can trigger retaliation by all. But an emergency meeting yielded another statement of condemnation.
“There’s no interest, enthusiasm or willingness at NATO for any military action,” said Stephen Larrabee, an expert in U.S.-Turkish relations at Rand Corporation. “They will support Turkey as it returns fire, and call for peace. But they’re not at the point of intervening.”
The U.S., although sympathetic, is loath to wade into a war in an election year. Nor are the financiallychallenged European countries eager to jump in — except for France.
Ankara is now in a doubly difficult position. When its efforts to push for a peaceful solution in Syria failed, casualties mounted, and refugees flooded the border, it supported the rebels, some of whom crossed into Turkey and returned with new weapons.
“Turkey was already engaged in a shadow war,” when the mortar attack occurred said Eissenstat. “And by some reports, Syria is repaying it by giving additional support to the PKK (Kurdish separatists).” Their attacks on Turkish targets increased as the war in Syria gathered steam. Scores of suspected dissidents have been jailed in Turkey.
But in spite of its own ethnic problems, Turkey has sheltered about 120,000 refugees from Syria and made urgent calls for international aid. If the war in Syria continues, many more will arrive on its doorstep. Meanwhile, it must show that it can defend its own citizens from cross-border attack. It has a powerful army and could inflict serious damage on Syria if the conflict escalated. But Turkish public opinion does not favour war.
“Turkey feels hung out to dry,” Larrabee said. “Nobody is willing to step up to the plate and help them. They believed in the degree of influence and ability of Turkey to shape the crisis. But instead, it’s exposed their limits.”