THE DEFENCE
Leafs will be held accountable on stopping goals, and scoring
There are five words that describe the Leafs defence for the upcoming season: they need to get better.
That breakdown extends from comments from coach Randy Carlyle, who said at the start of camp that players will be held equally accountable for preventing goals, as well as scoring them.
What Carlyle was referring to was the performance disparity between the Leafs offence-defence. The offence performed at competitive levels, with above average scoring numbers (5 on 5) and a power play that — when measured against their Eastern Conference competition — should have been good enough to propel them into the playoffs.
By contrast, the team defence dragged all the production down and made it meaningless. Toronto suffered as the NHL’s 29th ranked team in goals-against with 259.
All six of Toronto’s top defencemen ranked poorly in plus-minus. And while plus-minus is a debatable stat for measuring defensive efficiency, the Leafs were very poor as a group here: Dion Phaneuf (-10, ranked 255th in the league); Mike Komisarek (-13, 272nd), John Michael Liles (-14, 273rd) and Carl Gunnarsson (-9, 252nd).
Cody Franson (-1), Luke Schenn (-6) and Jake Gardiner (-2) were better, but collectively, the top seven were a minus-55.
The focus for this year’s club will centre on preventing goals, and all those negative stats on the defencemen won’t get better without a concerted effort from the forwards and a reduction in deflating, soft goals from the goalies.
Clearly, the Leafs top four projected for this year — Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, Liles, and Gardiner (when healthy) — face a season in which they will need stronger focus on winning battles and shutting down opponents if the team’s defence is to improve in 2012-13.
The Leafs consider their team a top-end skating club, and they proved that under both Ron Wilson and Carlyle. But skating itself is as tricky to break down as are offence and defence stats. Toronto was actually an average to weak skating team in competitive areas — getting into shot blocking lanes, one-on-one battles, gaining puck possession at both ends of the ice, and generally, in the small spaces that make teams like Boston and Pittsburgh so difficult to play against.
Toronto was also a decent faceoff club, and should have parlayed that puck possession into greater defensive numbers. But poor puck decisions from centre ice into the red zone led to turnovers and odd-man situations that left even veterans, like Phaneuf and Liles, vulnerable.
In addition, the club continued to play a skating, puck-movement style of game, one that scouts and coaches picked apart as the season moved into a higher gear with the post season in sight.
Carlyle’s 18-game stint at the close of last season saw the new coach realize these points quickly, and adjust the game plan to focus on preventing goals and a higher level of compete.
This adjustment, and its development over the shortened 48-game schedule, will be the key to better performance from the blueliners. The goals in that scenario should be the emergence of a true, No. 1 defenceman and a true, shut-down pair — two key factors the Leafs did not have in entirety last season.
PLAYER BY PLAYER
DION PHANEUF: Phaneuf had an off-year by some metrics, though his scoring statistics were at the levels of his best years in Calgary, and easily the best of his three seasons in Toronto.
While much can be made of his plusminus, it’s interesting to note he was a plus-17 in Leaf wins, and a minus-27 when the Leafs lost.
In the bigger picture, Phaneuf was called on to lead the Leafs more than ever in his three seasons. He led all Leaf blueliners in total time on ice for the season (sixth in the league), and time on ice per game (25:17, 10th in the league). He also led all Leaf blueliners in power-play and penalty-kill ice time.
It’ll be interesting to see how much step he has in his skating, and whether he can harness his excellent slap shot efficiently on the power play. He needs to underline himself as the Leafs top defenceman and one of the best in the league — and there’s a track record to suggest that’s where he will pan out this season.
CARL GUNNARSSON: It’s not unreasonable to think Carlyle will increase his ice time — which was second among blueliners to Phaneuf — to possibly spell Phaneuf a bit and take some pressure off the captain.
Gunarsson has proven a low maintenance top four blueliner with the Leafs, who can handle special teams, is reliable 5 on 5, and is a go-to guy in overtime and critical situations.
He’s also coming up on free agency and should get a raise in Toronto if he continues to improve. And he’s consistently improved in Toronto over his three seasons here, so taking over as a bona fide No. 2 should be a reachable goal.
JAKE GARDINER: The big question, as is always asked about players, is health: Gardiner won’t start the season (head injury), though he skated Tuesday for the first time since suffering the injury Dec. 9 with the Marlies.
Will this affect the significant promise he showed last year, when he poured in 30 points in 75 games and was regarded by many as one of the top rookie defencemen in the NHL?
Gardiner, when healthy, will still need to improve upon a game that earned him glowing reviews.
He was third among Leafs defencemen in special teams ice time, all of which suggests the emergence of a bona fide, all-star-level offensive defenceman.
But the Leafs coaching staff, and especially Carlyle, a solid defenceman in his day, need to pull Gardiner’s overall game together. That may be tough at first, given that the 21-year-old will be recovering from what the team calls concussion-like symptoms.
JOHN MICHAEL LILES: Liles is a high-octane defenceman whose production slipped last year while he returned from a major head injury.
He was on pace for another solid year offensively, scoring 21 points in 34 games, but he managed just six in 32 games after his return from injury.
He is constantly reminded about the defensive side of his game and that will be his focus for the upcoming season.
It’s a subtle focus: he needs only to take a few more steps to separate opponents from gaining inside position on him in front or from behind the Leafs net. Otherwise, he knows how to move the puck and can control the Leafs exit from their own zone once they get control of the puck.
His adjustments are at the fine-detail level.
MIKE KOMISAREK: Komisarek has a lot to prove this season, and it’s been widely reported that he is a buyout candidate under the new CBA.
His overall performance has been affected by injuries.
He needs to become the physical, shut down D-man he was at the height of his career. His experience factor could be valuable to Carlyle in this abbreviated season, especially if the Leafs get off to a good start and need to keep an above .500 record in tact.
CODY FRANSON: Freshly signed to a oneyear contract and, it appears, primed for a season in which he will factor in as a top-four blueliner.
While his performance sample was limited last season, he did make contributions that went unheralded. As pointed out in hockeyanalysis.com, Franson had a positive effect on goals-against stats for Liles and Gardiner, when he was paired with them.
It’s possible he projects into a shutdown D-man for the Leafs, allowing some of the more offensive-minded Leafs defencemen to handle the puck.