Is seven-year itch setting in with Tories? Hébert,
MONTREAL— Seven years after Pierre Trudeau’s arrival in power in 1968, the clouds that heralded the 1979 Liberal defeat were fast accumulating on his government’s horizon.
At the same juncture in his tenure Brian Mulroney was just two years away from watching voters sweep his Tory party out of office in the 1993 election.
As for Jean Chrétien, he had barely celebrated his seventh anniversary in power with a third majority victory in 2000 when he became embroiled in the Liberal civil war that would poison the well of his party for years to come.
One does not need an actuarial degree to know that the life expectancy of a government that has passed the seven-year mark is almost always shorter than its accumulated time in power.
At that stage, there is usually less sand left at the top of the government’s hourglass and it seems to be trickling down faster.
Less than a hundred days from the halfway point in Stephen Harper’s third mandate, there are signs that the seven-year itch may be at play in the relationship between the Conservatives and the electorate.
The Tories’ budget plan gives them precious little to lead a campaign with
This week Nanos reported that Harper’s leadership rating is down and most polls show that Conservative support in voting intentions has flattened out at a level well below the majority threshold. At the same time, the prime minister has just lost two ministers in a month to ethics breaches.
Harper is expected to tackle the perception that rot may be setting in his ranks by disposing of some cabinet deadwood this summer. That will likely be followed by the presentation of a throne speech in the fall.
The prime minister does not lack for MPs to promote, but it will be hard for his ministers to hit the ground running on the basis of a budget that offers them so little fuel to run on.
Over the past seven years, the Conservatives have burned a lot of rubber to little positive avail on fronts ranging from defence to energy, the environment and aboriginal affairs.
On top of that, the centrepiece of the budget — involving a more top-down federal role in job training — paves the way for acrimonious discussions with provinces such as Ontario and Quebec and with the First Nations. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has managed the singular feat of uniting Quebec’s national assembly against his budget.
This week’s budget has also irrevocably committed the government — at least politically — to the pursuit of a deficit-free 2015 budget.
That target date is chosen essentially to allow the Conservatives to put more tax cuts in the window of the next election. Between now and then, the cabinet will have to operate within a fiscal straitjacket to attain it.
But even if all goes according to plan and the deficit is off the books in 2015, there is no guarantee it will give the Conservatives the election edge they are counting on.
For example, with most provincial budgets stretched to the limit, the attraction of more individual tax cuts could pale in the face of renewed concerns as to the quality of the health-care system.
Faced with an ever-shrinking social safety net, there are at least even odds that a critical mass of voters could see the ritual sprinkling of tax breaks the Conservatives so cherish at election time as the mark of a federal government that is happy to fiddle while Rome burns.
After almost a decade of strategic federal retreat on fronts ranging from health care to the environment, the public opinion pendulum could swing back toward more government activism.
Under that scenario, voters would not so much be punishing the Conservatives for their management of the country’s finances as deciding that a party with a more ambitious vision is better placed to harvest the fruits of their labours. On that particular score, Flaherty’s eighth budget leaves his government vulnerable.