Cold War talk misses the point on Ukraine

Why the real comparison for the world is WWI

Will the people who feel nostalgic for the Cold War please leave the room. As the dramatic events in Ukraine threaten to rewrite the early history of this 21st century, it is dangerous that a relic of the 20th century keeps being injected into the debate.

This is a moment of great peril for Ukraine and its people. There is no certainty here of a happy ending, even though it is impossible not to be stirred by the crowds filling Kyiv’s Maidan square night after night. They are demanding what other democracies take for granted: the right to determine their own future.

But it is also a moment of great challenge beyond Ukraine’s borders. Depending on how this crisis unfolds, it has potentially immense implications for Europe, for the United States and, of course, for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin.

Russia’s role in this drama flows uniquely from its geography and its history. As Ukraine’s eastern neighbour, Russia shares a strategic border as well as a tortured history together as part of the former Soviet Union. What happens in Ukraine matters mightily to Moscow.

But there is little patience for this sentiment among powerful political interests in the U.S. In response to President Barack Obama’s declaration that the U.S. is not engaged in a “Cold War chess game” with Russia over Ukraine’s future, there are increasing demands among American conservatives that the Obama administration take a tougher line against Moscow.

The leading proponent is Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate in the 2012 election. Returning this week from a visit to Ukraine, he called Obama “the most naive president in history” and urged that he warn Putin that “any interference in Ukraine would have the most serious repercussions.”

But McCain’s comic book nostalgia for the rhetoric of the Cold War ignores the complexity of the Ukrainian story. There will be no easy way out of this stalemate and McCain, while in Ukraine, unwittingly highlighted one reason why.

McCain was photographed addressing a rally in Kyiv. Standing prominently beside him was a smiling Oleh Tyahnybok, leader of the ultra-nationalist, pro-fascist Svoboda opposition political party. Tyahnybok once called for the liberation of Ukraine from the “Muscovite-Jewish mafia” and has described Nazi death camp guard John Demjanjuk as a hero “fighting for truth.”

But so far, western leaders actually in power are showing restraint. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Ukraine should not be a battleground between “West versus East,” suggesting it is clearly in everyone’s interests to avoid the kind of escalation that could get out of control. But it will take skilful diplomacy on all sides.

Although there is no serious prospect that Russia will intervene militarily — such a scenario would turn out to be a disaster for Moscow — Russia’s valid concerns must be addressed in some constructive way.

One idea this week, which received considerable attention, came from Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to former U.S. president Jimmy Carter. Writing in the Financial Times, he argued that Ukraine cannot be part of any anti-Moscow alliance and he suggested that a “Finnish model” could work. Finland, north of Ukraine, is also a neighbour of Russia.

Brzezinski wrote the U.S. could assure Putin it would work toward “a truly independent and territorially undivided Ukraine” that would follow Finland’s lead. Like Finland, Ukraine would become a “mutually respectful neighbour with wide-ranging economic relations with Russia and the (European Union).”

This crisis is happening in a part of the world that is steeped in history, most recently a very troubled history. It was only 25 years ago that the Berlin Wall collapsed, triggering a series of events that led to the demise of the Soviet Union. This effectively ended the Cold War.

But if we want to reach back to the 20th century for illuminating historical references, we should go back a full 100 years. It was in August 1914, when the horror of the First World War began. Leaders at the time “sleepwalked” to war, seemingly unaware that their actions, or inaction, have consequences.

It is that tragic moment in the 20th century — not the Cold War — that should be in our minds as Ukraine’s dramatic journey continues. Tony Burman, former head of Al-Jazeera English and CBC News, teaches journalism at Ryerson University. (tony.burman@gmail.com)