Chow leading pack in Toronto mayoral race
Poll shows Ford, Tory trailing ex-MP; agreement that mayor has substance abuse problem
Olivia Chow led Rob Ford and John Tory in the latest poll on the mayoral election, maintaining an advantage she has held in most of the polls conducted in these early days of the 2014 campaign.
Chow had 34 per cent support, Ford 27 per cent, and Tory 24 per cent in the survey, taken Monday. She enjoyed a wider lead, of eight points, only on the day she launched her campaign in mid-March; she was in a statistical tie with Ford in the last public poll, conducted on March 27.
Karen Stintz and David Soknacki have not yet demonstrated that they are competitive with the top three contenders. Stintz’s support was at 6 per cent in the new poll; Soknacki at 4 per cent. Both have hovered around those levels since the 10month campaign began in January.
The true gap between Chow in first and Tory in third might be closer than the headline numbers suggest.
Tory leads among the seniors who are traditionally most likely to vote, Chow among the young people who are traditionally least likely. Pollster Forum Research does not factor turnout patterns into its data-weighting so far from the Oct. 27 voting day. The interactive voice response automated telephone poll included 882 residents. It is considered accurate within four percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Polls conducted on a single day might be more sensitive to recent news developments than multi-day polls. The Monday poll was the first public survey of the year in which respondents were asked who they liked second-best. The results provide more evidence of the loyalty of Ford’s base: 82 per cent of the people who said they will vote for him also said they don’t know who their second preference is. By contrast, 35 per cent of Chow supporters said Tory is their next- favourite candidate, and only 44 per cent said they don’t know. Chow and Ford were each the second preference of 21 per cent of Tory supporters, while 29 per cent said they don’t know. The second preferences of Stintz and Soknacki supporters are of significant interest to the three leading campaigns, since candidates trailing badly often drop out of the race in the summer or fall. But the size of those sub-samples is too small to be meaningful. The poll suggests, again, that about half of voters are inaccessible to Ford, who is far more polarizing than any other candidate. Ford and Stintz had the lowest approval ratings, 46 per cent, compared with 65 per cent for Tory, 60 per cent for Chow and 47 per cent for Soknacki. In a finding consistent with those of previous polls, 49 per cent of respondents said they would never vote for Ford — almost twice the 25 per cent who said they would never vote for Chow. Only 3 per cent said they would never vote for Tory.
There was broad agreement that Ford has a substance abuse problem, a proposition he rejects: 70 per cent of respondents said he does, about the same percentage as in mid-November. As Ford says, however, a substantial portion of the city does not appear to care. Forty-two per cent of the people who said they will vote for him agreed that he has a problem.