An ill omen for SmartTrack

In theatrical circles it’s called foreshadowing — when events occur in a story or play hinting at plot twists to come. But this literary device might well apply in transit planning, too.

Fresh doubt about the completion date set for Toronto’s Spadina subway extension seems an ill omen for the successful delivery of mayor-elect John Tory’s even more expansive transit promises.

Already delayed a year, from its original 2015 finishing date, the six-stop Spadina subway project is now at “significant risk” of missing its revised completion deadline, now set for late 2016. And that, as reported by the Star’s Tess Kalinowski, would almost certainly have important budget implications.

A tangle of unexpected woes besetting the $2.5-billion Spadina project underlines how readily big ventures can go wrong. That, coupled with the excessive optimism at the core of Tory’s SmartTrack plan, should disabuse even the most naive commuter of expecting to use Tory’s 22-station “surface subway” in just seven years.

Problems began slowing the Spadina expansion even before the first shovelful of dirt was turned. Unexpected funding issues had construction starting late; there was an unusually harsh winter to endure; a worker was killed on the job, requiring a delay for an investigation; there were unforeseen tunnelling complications; and three station buildings have been problematic.

Toronto Transit Commission CEO Andy Byford is assembling an expert panel to review the tardy project and recommend ways to address the 2016 deadline. Possibilities include opening just a section of the line on schedule, or detouring track around a particularly challenging station. A report is to go to the TTC board in December.

The worst choice of all would be to set yet another deadline and blow through that too. “What we cannot do is keep announcing dates and keep missing them,” Byford said. And rightly so.

A key lesson in transit planning is to expect the unexpected. Tory received a taste of the complications ahead even while he was still on the election trail, when he was criticized for the vague and uncertain extent of tunnelling required to fulfil his plan. Given SmartTrack’s jurisdictional complexity and engineering challenges, it’s a safe bet that additional nasty and expensive surprises are in store.

One way of minimizing those was suggested this week by Martin Buck, a senior executive with Britain’s massive Crossrail project in London. Dwarfing any line undertaken in Toronto, the 118-kilometre Crossrail system will run on existing railway lines at the outskirts of the city and travel along 42 kilometres of tunnel to serve the core.

In a meeting with Star reporters, Buck said Crossrail planners had successfully fine-tuned their costs and limited unexpected surprises by investing heavily — early on — in the design process. They researched the work that lay ahead even more thoroughly than usual. That approach might well have avoided some of the problems now plaguing the Spadina subway extension. And it’s worth trying when embarking on SmartTrack.

Just to be clear, this level of preliminary research is far different from the endless studies and competing transit plans that have done so much to fuel political dithering by Toronto city council. That’s the road to chaos and, clearly, it must be avoided.

Even more important than delivering SmartTrack in seven years’ time, as promised — which (sorry Mr. Tory) almost certainly won’t happen — is the need to do it right. To that end priority should be given to in-depth research and detailed early design, especially on the system’s stations. It’s not the stuff of high drama, but it’s the best way to foreshadow success.

Problems began slowing the Spadina expansion even before the first shovelful of dirt was turned