A will and away: Hello world juniors, goodbye Leafs . . . who will play 16 of next 20 on road

The Maple Leafs got an important gauge of themselves by knocking off the Detroit Red Wings twice, the defending Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings and league-leading Anaheim Ducks in the past couple of weeks.

That 9-2 rout at the hands of the Nashville Predators is clearly in their rear-view mirror.

But, in reality, the true test of whether the Maple Leafs are a playoff team should be decided by Feb. 7.

That’s when the Leafs come off a massive road swing that will see them playing 16 of 20 away from the Air Canada Centre, starting on Sunday in Chicago.

In a possible best-case scenario, the Leafs will go 9-7 and put themselves on solid playoff footing, but a more likely case is they go 6-10 and have to play better than .500 the rest of the way.

In losing to Carolina on Thursday, the Leafs continue to come up flat against low-scoring teams. That could spell trouble against Boston, Florida, Winnipeg and New Jersey.

Let’s break down the Leafs’ road swing into three stages:

DEC. 21 TO JAN. 7 (SEVEN STRAIGHT ON ROAD)

Road opposition: Blackhawks, Stars, Panthers, Lightning, Bruins, Wild and Jets.

Best case: (4-3) Wins against Stars, Panthers, Wild and Jets.

Likely outcome: (3-4) Wins against Stars, Panthers and Wild.

Outlook: It’s hard to see the Leafs beating the Blackhawks on the night after they face the Flyers at home, especially since Chicago is one of the hottest teams in the league. It’s just as hard to see the Leafs completing this trip with a winning record. It’s doubtful they will go 3-0 against the Blackhawks, Lightning and Bruins. It’s more likely they’ll go 0-3. The Bruins are struggling, but they’re getting key pieces back in their lineup. It’s also likely the Leafs will lose at least one game on the back end of two games in two nights, either to the Lightning on Dec. 29 or the Jets on Jan. 3 as fatigue sets in.

JAN. 12-19 (FOUR STRAIGHT ON ROAD)

Road opposition: Kings, Ducks, Sharks and Blues.

Best case: (2-2) Wins against Kings and Blues.

Likely outcome: (1-3) Win against either Kings or an upset of the Blues.

Outlook: This will be the toughest part of the road swing, but this could also see an upset — perhaps over the Blues. The Leafs face the Ducks and Sharks on consecutive nights (Jan. 14-15) and they would be hardpressed to beat the Sharks on the second night of back-to-backs. The Leafs beat both the Kings and Ducks earlier this month, but it’s not going to happen again. Look for one win against either the Kings or Ducks but not a sweep.

JAN. 21 TO FEB. 7 (FIVE OF SIX ON ROAD)

Road opposition: Senators, Devils, Flyers, Predators and Devils.

Best case: (3-2) Wins against Senators, Devils and Flyers.

Likely outcome: (2-3) Wins against Senators and Devils.

Outlook: The Leafs should be ex- hausted by this point, and would be doing well to win two of five road games. You can see them beating the Ottawa Senators and winning at least one of two games against the New Jersey Devils.

Conclusion: It’s likely the Leafs won’t do any better than 6-10 on this massive road trip given the challenges and fatigue factor. Even if they win three of four at home during this stretch of 20 games, the pressure will be on. They would have to play better than .500 hockey the rest of the way, using 93 points as the benchmark for the final qualifying spot in the postseason. If, in a best-case scenario, the Leafs achieve a 9-7 mark or better on the road, the final stretch of 29 games played under .500 should still be good enough.