Who’s in, who’s out? MPs ponder 2015
Politicians take a break to think about their future in run-up to election
OTTAWA— The holidays are a muchneeded break at a time of year when the light dies early and energy ebbs.
For many members of Parliament, this winter break is especially an occasion to contemplate the rough autumn that saw Canada join a war in the Middle East, two soldiers slain on home soil and Parliament Hill attacked.
On the last day of the Commons sitting, Conservative MP Erin O’Toole said while there had been a constituency week in November, members on all sides had a lot to process. “I think people need the break because I do think you need time to just absorb the session, spend time with the family . . . You don’t actually get much time to decompress.”
Then MPs on all sides were shaken by accusations that two Liberal MPs were ousted from their party’s caucus over allegations they sexually harassed two NDP members. O’Toole said while there was a lot of camaraderie right after the shooting, “the harassment thing made it a bit more polarized again.”
Still, he says, “behind the scenes there have been MPs checking in on one another, and staff. That is one small bright thing from the experience. People realize this is sometimes an intense environment and you have to make sure that sometimes we don’t look past the fact that something traumatic happened and you can’t just wash it away; and is everyone OK from it?” One NDP MP acknowledged that he only recently realized how draining the terror attack had been and admitted he hadn’t been sleeping well ever since.
Others privately confide they’re weighing their futures and fear talking publicly about it lest they be dubbed lame ducks.
Some didn’t wait. Liberal Frank Valeriote and Libby Davies, the NDP’s deputy house leader, announced before Christmas they would not run again. Former NDP caucus chair Glenn Thibeault quit to vie for a provincial Liberal nomination, citing work strains on family life from commuting to Ottawa.
With all that in mind, there are musings and rumours around Ottawa about which members of the governing party may choose the postholiday period to follow suit and join the 23 Conservatives who have announced they won’t run again.
Top on the lists of many political observers is Veterans Affairs Minister Julian Fantino. The Vaughan MP, who won tepid support from Prime Minister Stephen Harper in year-end interviews, will be 73 by next year’s election and could announce he won’t run again.
What could motivate Fantino to run again is that, having been first elected in a byelection in November 2010 and re-elected in May 2011, he will not have met the threshold of six years service to qualify for an MP pension. However, having served 40 years as a police officer and chief of four different police services, he would certainly have other retirement income.
Fisheries Minister Gail Shea told the P.E.I. Guardian newspaper that she will consider her future over the holidays.
Finance Minister Joe Oliver has publicly said he will run again, but a source told the Star he is not expected to seek re-election in EglintonLawrence. Oliver is unlikely to make such an announcement in the leadup to a federal budget, his first as finance minister after taking over the portfolio vacated when Jim Flaherty stepped down just weeks before his death last spring.
Oliver’s spokeswoman Melissa Lantsman denied the notion outright. “He is nominated and running,” she said.
CTV suggested Edmonton Conservative MP James Rajotte, the popular chair of the Commons finance committee, was mulling going to work with Alberta’s PC Premier Jim Prentice, joining former caucus colleague Rob Merrifield who left early last fall. Rajotte rejects the speculation, saying his intention is to run again federally.
CTV also suggested Peter MacKay would not run again. MacKay’s office denies this. “The mandatory signatures are complete and nomination papers are ready to file in the new year,” spokeswoman Clarissa Lamb said.
Conservative MP Patrick Brown is running for Ontario’s Progressive Conservative leadership, but has not said whether he’d step down as the federal MP for Barrie if he loses the provincial bid. Mississauga MP Eve Adams withdrew a bid for the Oakville nomination, but it’s not yet clear if she intends to contest another riding.
According to political blogger Alice Funke, other incumbent Tories have yet to be re-nominated or announce their retirement, including: Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Lynne Yelich and Alberta MP Leon Benoit. But Aboriginal Affairs Minister Bernard Valcourt, who was a question mark, has since been re-nominated to run again.
Earlier this year, when the Star reported on leaked Conservative campaign strategy documents, 11 incumbents had indicated to party officials they wouldn’t run for re-election, while 16 were unsure, meaning up to 27 MPs might step down.
So far, however, the total number of Conservative MPs not running again is 23. They are:
Brian Storseth, Rick Norlock, Diane Ablonczy, Gordon O’Connor, Joe Preston, Maurice Vellacott, Ray Boughen, Mike Allen, Garry Breitkreuz, Barry Devolin, Laurie Hawn, Colin Mayes, LaVar Payne, Ed Komarnicki, Greg Kerr, Gerald Keddy, Russ Hiebert, James Lunney, Peter Goldring, Gary Schellenberger, Rob Anders, Dick Harris, Patricia Davidson.
NDP MPs not running again: Libby Davies, Glenn Thibeault, Alex Atamenko Jean Crowder, Joe Comartin, Marie-Claude Morin, and Tarik Brahmi.
Liberals not running again: Frank Valeriote, Irwin Cotler, Lise St-Denis, Ted Hsu, Gerry Byrne.
(The Green party’s two sitting MPs, Leader Elizabeth May and Bruce Hyer — who joined from the independent ranks after quitting the NDP — have both been re-nominated to run again.)