IS THE GLASS HALF FULL . . . OR HALF EMPTY?
As Leafs hit the midway point of a tumultuous season, we assess the team’s performance so far,
The Leafs reached the halfway point of the NHL season with a rock tied to their bumper, after a 2-7-0 slide that ultimately cost head coach Randy Carlyle his job. Now they’re on the road for four games, starting Monday night in Los Angeles, with former assistant Peter Horachek in charge behind the bench. This trip will help to find out whether a renewed focus on three-zone hockey and overall defence — effective in their first win under Horachek on Friday, game No. 42 of the 82-game campaign — is for real. If not . . . over to you, GM Dave Nonis and president Brendan Shanahan. The Leafs sat two points out of a wild-card berth. Here’s a look at the first half and what may lie ahead:
FIRST-HALF GRADES
Do any Leafs deserve an A? Not really, though Roman Polak gets one for toughness after returning from a puck to the mouth against the Capitals on Wednesday. By position, the forwards earned a B by leading the league in scoring while ranking near the bottom defensively. The Leafs will struggle down the stretch, as they did last year, unless every forward buys into the three-zone play preached by the coaching staff. The defence has also excelled offensively. Polak and Stephane Robidas get high remarks for taking the body, boxing out, using their sticks to check when they’re outmuscled, blocking shots. The rest of the top six — Cody Franson, Dion Phaneuf, Morgan Rielly, and Jake Gardiner — could stand to be more physical, in a smart way. Overall, the D also rates a B.
BEST BY POSITION
Forwards: For consistent effort, Mike Santorelli and Dan Winnik rate the highest. Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Nazem Kadri have all been hot and cold. With Kadri’s five-on-five statistics now better than Bozak’s, there’s some debate about who should centre the top line.
Defence: Polak, Robidas and Franson in that order based on all-around play (physical, fearless, smart with the puck). The rest are close, but need to step up physically.
LEADERSHIP
Toronto’s dressing room was never fully united, but that’s true of every team. Stickgate, when the team decided not to salute the fans after a home game, was one prime example. They called it a change of routine, not a snub, and one that would continue. It ended after one game, apparently following a stern, on-ice message from the veteran Robidas. All of that appears to be cleaned up now, with leadership from several players and everyone contributing. Van Riemsdyk, who has been playing inspired hockey the past two games, could take on a bigger role.
WHO’S THE BOSS?
President Brendan Shanahan made his views crystal clear in Friday’s address to the team, saying players need to “grow up,” and “buy in.” For various reasons, Carlyle wasn’t able to make that happen. Enter Shanahan. It’s not common for the president to speak directly to the team, though Shanahan won’t likely make it a weekly occurrence. There’s no denying the three Stanley Cup rings on his fingers carry some weight.
SHOTS AGAINST
Another hot-button issue in the first half. The Leafs’ winning percentage is .583 when they outshoot opponents, .517 when they don’t. Ten of goalie Jonathan Bernier’s 16 wins came when the Leafs were outshot.
THE LINES
The Leafs have tried to mirror teams like the Los Angeles Kings, with four reliable forward lines. Carlyle mixed and matched frequently, and was on the right track when he broke up the top line of Bozak, Kessel and van Riemsdyk. That unit may be reunited, though, once Joffrey Lupul and Peter Holland return from injury. The second half might include more of what Horachek tried in Friday night’s win over the Blue Jackets, when Winnik, Santorelli and Richard Panik were worked into the top six.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Basically, Shanahan and Nonis have to decide whether they can win with this group. The consensus at the moment is, no — this core group doesn’t appear to be the basis of a Stanley Cup contender, not without help. When you’ve doled out more than a quarter-billion dollars on seven players with the expectation of a winner, the MLSE board expects a return on that investment. The Leafs have 40 regular-season games remaining. If they do make a move, they’ll want to do something big — acquiring a topsix forward or top-four defenceman. The willingness to trade will depend on whether forwards buy in to threezone play and help in the defensive zone. If the Leafs do that, they can make the playoffs. If not, they will slide out of the picture like they did last year. The team’s record is almost identical to the same time last season, so it will be interesting to see if anything really changes. If they fail to make the playoffs, all bets are off on the futures of the core players.
Friday night’s opponent, the Blue Jackets, offers an interesting comparison. While the Leafs have had that expensive core in place for about two years, the Jackets, seven points behind Toronto, are just starting to build their own — Nick Foligno, Ryan Johansen and Sergei Bobrovsky agreeing to lucrative deals. Both clubs have two solid young prospects on defence: Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner in Toronto, Ryan Murray and David Savard in Columbus. In the end, it will be interesting to see which club fares better.
Rielly has led Leaf defencemen in even-strength ice time the past two games, which could be a portent of things to come, but you have to expect the four vets — Phaneuf, Franson, Polak and Robidas — to take command down the stretch. The speedy, skilful Gardiner had a very quiet night Friday — no big rushes into the offensive zone or risky passes to speak of. He was stuck in his own zone for the most part.
In net, Jonathan Bernier had 16 wins from 29 starts in the first 42 games. He made 49 starts with 26 wins all of last season. Like all goalies, he performs better with more work. There is no guarantee, but a healthy Bernier handling a bigger workload could take the Leafs farther this season.
PLAYOFF OUTLOOK
It took 93 points to nail down a wildcard playoff berth last season. The Leafs would need 46 points in their final 40 games to reach that total — or a .500 winning percentage plus six extra points from overtimes or shootouts. Not a terribly tall order.