Tory fails to follow the facts

Toronto Mayor John Tory uttered two contradictory policy statements this past week — so at odds, in fact, that they smack of hypocrisy.

On the one hand, he insisted that fulfilling his election pledge to privatize garbage collection east of Yonge St. must wait until evidence is in on whether delivering on this promise makes economic sense.

“Unless you want to say to people you’re making decisions based on pure ideology, you should be making sure you have the facts,” Tory told reporters on Wednesday. “We’re going to get the facts and do this properly.”

Fair enough. Due diligence is important, especially when public services and taxpayers’ money are involved. But, ironically, in almost the same breath, Tory tossed accountability aside and doubled down on the city’s ruinously expensive Scarborough subway extension.

He described that ill-advised project as his top priority and pledged to push it forward. “My work plan has Scarborough subway No. 1.” Unfortunately for Tory’s credibility, and for taxpayers’ wallets, there’s no sound business case for proceeding with that initiative.

In an opinion piece published in the Star last Sunday, former TTC chief general manager R. Michael Warren noted that no value-for-money case exists for the planned three-stop Scarborough subway extension.

That’s right, no careful cost-benefit analysis has been done for an undertaking that is projected to drain at least $1,200 from the average Toronto household through extra property tax. That assumes this subway will be built on-budget and with no hike in interest rates. Local ratepayers could be on the hook for considerably more.

They’re already stuck covering sunk costs, estimated at about $100 million, spent on cancelling a seven-stop light-rail line that would have better-served Scarborough residents. After thorough study, that line was deemed the best transit option by professionals at Metrolinx, the agency in charge of transportation planning through the Greater Toronto Area. Other experts agreed. Furthermore, the rail line’s construction would have been entirely funded by the province at no cost to Toronto ratepayers.

In light of all this, if anything deserves a serious, hard-nosed, evidence-based analysis it’s the Scarborough subway extension. It’s not too late to turn back if the project proves unworthy. Indeed, changing track now would actually deliver public transit faster, since an ultra-modern light-rail line would open years sooner than an underground route.

Yet Tory intends to forge ahead with the subway, even in the absence of a thorough study — even in the absence of the facts. Perhaps he’ll find the following, thumbnail cost-benefit analysis useful, just to start discussion:

Toronto property taxpayers’ price for a seven-stop Scarborough light-rail line, providing optimum public transit: Zero. It’s free.

Local cost for an inferior, three-stop Scarborough subway extension: at least $910 million (that’s just the city’s share) to be funded, in part, through a special 30-year property tax increase.

Which is better, Mayor Tory? You’re a successful business executive. Do the math. At least commit to undertaking a real costbenefit analysis, as you have for privatized garbage collection. And commit to following wherever the facts lead and sticking with the result.

We understand that backtracking on the ill-conceived subway wouldn’t be easy. Your support for this guaranteed vote-grabber in Scarborough helped set you apart from mayoral rivals Olivia Chow and David Soknacki in last year’s election. And Ontario’s Liberal government still backs the underground route, sticking with the same political pandering that killed the light-rail option in the first place. To step back now would certainly cost considerable support in subway-obsessed Scarborough. But sometimes that’s the price of following the facts.

If you can’t undertake a meaningful cost-benefit analysis, at least spare Torontonians more assurances like the following, also made on Wednesday:

“I can tell you right now, I’m going to try to go through the entire four years of my term as mayor making decisions based on fact, and based on evidence, and based on thoughtful consideration.”

Nice words; easy words. They would be even nicer if they rang true.

Toronto mayor’s apparently contradictory policy statements this past week do not bode well