Bernier, blue line, contracts, McDavid in play down stretch
The March 2 trade deadline is arguably the biggest day remaining on the Maple Leafs’ schedule, but it isn’t the only story still in play. With the playoffs all but out of reach — but a shot at the Connor McDavid sweepstakes possible — their to-do list over the final 28 regular season games is a long one. Here are six storylines to watch:
FIX JONATHAN BERNIER
The Leafs’ No. 1 goalie, like the team as a whole, hasn’t been himself over the past month, but should be worked hard down the stretch in a bid to build confidence. Bernier posted a save percentage below .900 over his last 11 starts, raising doubts about his ability to cement the No. 1 role. James Reimer, after some admirable efforts, has become more of a reliever than a backup, but Bernier remains the hope for the future in net. The goal should be to get him back at the top of his game, helping the Leafs play a spoiler role down the stretch.
FREE RIELLY, GARDINER
The defence pair of Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner remains a work in progress, but there has been improvement — even through the team’s nasty tailspin — and it should be allowed to continue at full speed. Right now, they’re among the Leaf leaders in ice time. Give them even more. Not like Drew Doughty of the Kings — who has played 30+ minutes 22 times — but maybe 24 minutes a night.
Rielly is already averaging more than 21 minutes, an increase under Peter Horachek. Rielly, in just 53 games, is two shots away from his rookie season total of 96 and both have earned more prime ice time — on the power play and with the top line. That domain normally belongs to Dion Phaneuf, but with the captain hurt and the subject of trade speculation, it will be interesting to see how the assignments are divided up when he returns. Phaneuf may or may not be part of the future. These two are poised to drive the team forward.
CONTRACTS AND EXTENSIONS
The guessing game now is whether the Leafs will invest in key pending free agents now or wait until the summer. The popular belief is that defenceman Cody Franson — who is likely to get more on the open market than the multi-year deal at $4.6 million per season that the Leafs have reportedly offered — will be traded. Nazem Kadri is also due for a rich new contract and could shoot up to $30 million over five years. With Phaneuf, Gardiner, Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak, Joffrey Lupul and David Clarkson locked up long term, there’s already a lot of stress on the payroll with only $1.3 million in current cap space. The pending restricted free agents are Kadri, Bernier and Richard Panik. The unrestricted group: Dan Winnik, Mike Santorelli, Franson, Trevor Smith, Korbinian Holzer and David Booth. Even if you cut away all the UFAs, the Leafs remain tight for next season with more than $56 million committed to 13 players. Some tough decisions are looming.
WAKE UP THE TOP LINE
It appears the coaching staff wants to keep Bozak, Kessel and James van Riemsdyk together, but there should be some caveats. The Leafs should keep an eye on not only their Corsi numbers, which measure puck possession, but also shooting percentages. Their Corsi numbers were rising slightly under coach Randy Carlyle, but the shooting percentage began to fall off after he was fired and Peter Horachek took over. It’s been said that the Leafs have struggled to score because of Horachek’s two-way, three-zone system, but the top line has improved in some key metrics. It’s time for Kessel, van Riemsdyk and Bozak to step up and set the tone.
MCDAVID: REAL OR FANTASY?
Based on current standings, the Leafs have a 6.5 per cent chance of landing generational draft pick Connor McDavid in June. Finishing last overall would improve that number to 20 per cent, but that isn’t realistic with the Leafs 15 points up on the Buffalo Sabres. Still, 6.5 per cent puts them in the game. A year ago, Buffalo also finished last but lost the draft lottery to the Florida Panthers, who had an 18.3 per cent shot. The best odds don’t always pay off. If they snap out of the misery of the past month and go roughly .500 the rest of the way, the Leafs will likely finish around 24th in the 30-team league — or exactly where they are now. To illustrate how far out of reach the playoffs are: with 93 points considered the benchmark for a wild-card spot, the Leafs would have to go 205-3 the rest of the way to get there.
THE DAVID CLARKSON SAGA
Clarkson was a healthy scratch for the first time as a Leaf on Saturday night, when they snapped an11-game winless skid. Horachek’s explanation: Clarkson continues to work hard and “we continue to ask for more.” Under the weight of a sevenyear, $36.75 million contract signed in the summer of 2013, he’s on pace for around 23 points with just three goals in his last 30 games. Buying him out is not a sound option financially. What has likely ticked off the coaching staff the most is his lack of production on the power play, where he excelled in his days with the New Jersey Devils. Since receiving increased power-play time early this season, Clarkson has gone 43 straight games without a point with the man advantage. It will be interesting to see how much good ice time Clarkson gets the rest of the way.