Crude price shock sends pessimism in Canada to recession-era levels

OTTAWA— Consumer pessimism about the Canadian economy deepened to levels last seen during the recession as the nation grapples with the impact of an oil price shock.

The share of Canadians who predict the national economy will fade over the next six months rose to 45.5 per cent last week, the highest since the first quarter of 2009, according to Nanos Research. Those predicting the economy will strengthen fell to 15 per cent, the lowest since 2008.

Every week, Nanos Research asks Canadians for their views on personal finances, job security, the outlook for the economy and where real estate prices are headed. This is what the survey data, which is compiled for Bloomberg News, captured for the week ending Feb. 6:

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index — a composite score based on the four survey questions — declined to 54.6, the lowest since May 2013, from 55.6.

The share of Canadians expressing pessimism about the prospects for the economy has doubled from October. The difference between pessimists and optimists — at 30.4 per cent — is the highest since the 200809 recession.

Canadians continue to pare expectations for home values. The share of those predicting real estate prices will fall over the next six months rose to 18.2 per cent, the highest level since May 2013 and up from about 11 per cent in October. The percentage predicting prices will rise, while up the last two weeks, remains at rela- tively low levels. It was 32.2 per cent last week from 44 per cent in October.

Canadians remain relatively optimistic about the state of their personal finances, reflecting falling prices for gas and lower mortgage rates. The share of Canadians who say their finances have improved over the past year has averaged 25 per cent over the past three weeks, the highest since at least 2008.

Job security remains elevated. The share of Canadians who describe their job as at least somewhat secure was 71 per cent last week, versus a 12-month average of 66.7 per cent. Those who say their jobs are not secure or not at all secure with 12.3 per cent who say their employment is not secure or somewhat not secure, in line with the 12-month average.