Shed light on a murky war

Does Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative government actually have any idea of what “success” fighting the Islamic State jihadists in Iraq and Syria might look like, much less how long the battle may rage and at what cost?

Or are Canadian troops about to be signed on for another risky tour of duty training Iraqi security forces and bombing jihadist targets, with no real sense that the threat is being neutralized?

That’s a question Parliament should be asking as Harper lays the groundwork for extending the six-month mission next month.

Make no mistake. As Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby recently put it, “this is gonna be a long struggle.” While Americanled airstrikes have killed as many as 6,000 of the Islamic State’s 20,000 to 30,000 fighters, they continue to recruit. Meanwhile, barely 700 square kilometres of the 55,000 they dominate in Iraq have been pried from their control. While the jihadist advance in Iraq at least has been blunted, the U.S. military is braced for a threeto five-year conflict, if not a generational one.

Inevitably, pressure is building on Canada and other allies to provide more “trainers” at bases in Iraq where 3,600 troops are in the pipeline. As the U.S. and its allies run out of Islamic State targets to pound from the air, the decisive campaign against the jihadists will be fought on the ground. The Pentagon fully expects “to get additional coalition partners in terms of training,” Kirby says.

For his part, Defence Minister Jason Kenney confirms that Ottawa is “inclined to continue to play a meaningful role,” insisting “it’s a matter of national interest that we be there.”

Yet given that Harper misled Canadians back on Oct. 3, 2014, when he told Parliament that our forces would have only a “noncombat” role and that there would be “no ground combat mission,” any plans to extend the mission or provide additional forces deserve more than routine scrutiny.

As Canadians now know, our small contingent of fewer than 70 troops based in northern Iraq has been doing much more than training. They have been providing front line surveillance on enemy targets, calling in Canadian fighter-bomber strikes from our base in Kuwait and using lasers to “paint” jihadist targets. They operate so close to the action that they have come under fire, and fired back. This is about fighting. Apart from the “trainers,” Canada has six CF-18 warplanes based in Kuwait, along with 600 personnel, two reconnaissance aircraft and a refueler. Collectively they have flown 500 sorties.

Last fall, both New Democrat Leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau pointedly refused to vote for the mission, knowing that public support for sending a few warplanes was strong, but that people were leery of committing ground troops.

Before Harper extends Canada’s murky and morphing mission, he should shed some light on it.

Does he plan to step up Canada’s contribution? By how much? For how long? Where? What will their mandate be? Will it include action in Syria? What will it cost? Officials stonewalled for months before coming up with a $122-million estimate so far.

What other allies, apart from the Americans, are prepared to shoulder comparable risks on the ground?

What does Ottawa see the mission accomplishing? To date, the results have been meagre at best.

Where is the plan to end Syria’s catastrophic civil war, and to shore up Iraq’s chronically unstable government? The jihadists thrive amid chaos.

And what have we accomplished in the past six months? How many Iraqis have we trained? How many Islamic State targets have we hit? What’s the bottom line?

Parliament has good reason to push for credible answers. Harper’s enthusiasm for intervention in Iraq goes back a long way, to George W. Bush’s ill-conceived invasion in 2003. As opposition leader he was eager to send Canadian troops but later conceded the invasion “was absolutely an error.” Happily, then-prime minister Jean Chrétien had the foresight to steer clear of that debacle.

Before we commit more troops, Canadians deserve to know where this is taking us, and what we can reasonably hope to accomplish.

Before committing more troops, Canadians deserve to know where this war against the Islamic State is taking us