Round 1: The Raptors vs. the Wizards
POINT GUARD
Kyle Lowry 17.7 ppg, 6.8 apg, 16.3 ppg vs. Wizards John Wall 19.0 ppg vs. Raptors, 10.0 apg overall (2nd in NBA), 4.7 rpg An intriguing matchup of guile and strength vs. speed between the backcourt starters for the Eastern Conference in February’s all-star game . . . Lowry seems fully over the back woes that hampered him in the last month of the season and he’ll have to be to contain the super quick Wall . . . Lowry is not the flashiest of players but his teammates feed off his intensity and toughness . . . His shot was faulty in the final week of the season but that could be chalked up to his injury-induced absence . . . Wall is one of the quickest guards in the league going end-to-end with the ball and getting him stopped in transition is a huge task . . . Wall is not the greatest shooter in the world but he has a knack for finding open teammates off dribble. Advantage: Washington, especially if Lowry is not 100 per cent.
SHOOTING GUARD
DeMar DeRozan 20.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 7.4 FTA per game Bradley Beal 15.2 ppg, 3.1 apg, 43 per cent 3-pt fg Two players key to their team’s fortunes look for post-season redemption after injury-reduced regular season; both are red-hot coming into the playoffs . . . An argument can be made that DeRozan is playing better than he ever has — assertive and economical on offence, tied and tuned in on defence . . . The trouble spot, of course, is the groin thing that he took a game off this week to nurse . . . DeRozan’s passing ability and court awareness make a doubleteam less effective . . . Beal hasn’t really found himself in Washington’s offensive system despite being an excellent shooter . . . He can carry a team offensively if he gets hot . . . Beal is a passable but not above-average defender who is sure to get some help trying to guard DeRozan . . . Beal sat out almost a quarter of the season with wrist and leg injuries. Advantage: Toronto
SMALL FORWARD
Terrence Ross 9.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 50 per cent 3-pt fg vs. Wash Paul Pierce 12.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 148 career playoff games Pierce is primed to be the target of all kinds of fan ire not only because of what he did to Toronto a year ago in the playoffs but because he took a shot at the franchise before series . . . Ross remains an enigma, athletically gifted but prone to inconsistency that is maddening . . . The Raptors need him to handle the pressure better than in last year’s playoffs, when as a first-timer he was basically over- whelmed . . . This Toronto team doesn’t need him to score an awful lot with the weapons it has, but he has to be an above-average defender . . . No question Pierce is Public Enemy No. 1 in the eyes of fans; Raptors coaches and players don’t like him because they fear he’ll win at least one game with a big shot . . . Pierce has definitely lost a step and will likely get some help trying to guard the quicker Ross. Advantage: Washington
POWER FORWARD
Amir Johnson 9.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 58 per cent fg Nene 11.0 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 51 per cent fg There’s every chance this turns into Tyler Hansbrough vs. Nene if Dwane Casey sticks with what’s been working of late, but Johnson is likely to finish games . . . It’s all about the ankle for the veteran Johnson, who had two brief stints to get ready after missing a week with a sprain . . . His defensive play is a huge key; he has a knack for helping that masks the deficiencies of some teammates . . . If Johnson is not at 100 per cent, look for less involvement on the offence outside of setting screens . . . Nene has been banged up as well over the last couple of weeks of the season and this might just be a survival test for each . . . He can stretch the floor a little bit, which is problematic for the Raptors defence … Not the greatest in transition defence, Nene will be vulnerable that way. Advantage: Toronto
CENTRE
Jonas Valanciunas 12.0 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 1.2 bpg Marcin Gortat 12.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 6.3 ppg vs. Toronto Valanciunas is perhaps the greatest of the unknowns; he didn’t handle last year’s post-season particularly well but is a far more mature player now . . . He can’t get flustered if he sees double-teams and has to move the ball quickly and decisively . . . He is not a very good pick-and-roll defender; opponents know that and it may limit how much he plays . . . Gortat might finish fewer games than Valanciunas and his impact never comes in the fourth quarter . . . Gortat is comfortable away from the basket and that’s absolutely not a Valanciunas strength . . . Effective in pick-and-roll offence. Advantage: Even
BENCH Toronto: Lou Williams, Greivis Vasquez, Patrick Patterson, Tyler Hansbrough Washington: Otto Porter, Rasual Butler, Ramon Sessions, Kris Humphries
Coaches have a way of shortening rotations and cutting into the playing time of backups with no back-to-backs to worry about and a desire to ride starters. But these teams get so much off the bench, that might not be the case . . . Toronto’s backups are primarily scorers; their production has given the team a huge boost and only the energetic effort of Hansbrough on the boards can be seen as a big defensive help . . . Potential NBA Sixth Man Williams and Patterson cannot afford to go into any kind of shooting slump, it’s how they help the team . . . Ex-Raptor Humphries is Hansbrough-like with his energy and that could be a wildly entertaining matchup . . . Toronto fans might be surprised Butler is still in the league but he’s shooting almost 40 per cent from three-point range and is a trusted sub. Advantage: Toronto
COACHING
Dwane Casey Randy Wittman There is plenty of focus on the coaches in a playoff series because there are all kinds of adjustments to be made and counter-moves to come up with between games and every key possession each game is overanalyzed. It might not fair, but it’s fact . . . Casey has to be conflicted; he’s coaching a team with one of the most prolific offences in the league and a suspect defence, contrary to all that he stands for a coach. To his credit, though, he let the team find what worked for it best all season and did not put the brakes on . . . He has the best winning percentage of any coach in franchise history . . . There seemed at times to be an odd disconnect between Wittman and his players, and at one point it seemed his job was in peril . . . Wittman is not really known as an offensive or defensive expert, he is just one of those coaches who has been around forever. Advantage: Toronto
INTANGIBLES
Much playoff success is predicated on experience and the Wizards have a bit more and won a series with much the same roster a year ago . . . Home court is a factor; Raptors fans have proved to be far more vocal and supportive than folks at the Verizon Center and if it gets to a Game 7, that’s an advantage . . . Everyone is a bit banged up at this point in the season but avoiding any further injury during a series is huge . . . Both teams have struggled in the second half of the season but Toronto seems to have righted itself of late.
WHO WILL WIN
Toronto in seven.