MAN OF THE HOUR
The NHL’s draft lottery is Saturday night, but Leaf fans would be wise to temper their hopes of landing the right to pick Connor McDavid,
The Maple Leafs won’t be crossing their fingers or bringing out any lucky rabbits’ feet.
In fact, the team is keeping expectations low that it will win the right to draft Connor McDavid, the teen phenom with the Erie Otters.
The fate of one NHL franchise changes Saturday night when the league determines which of the 14 teams that didn’t make the playoffs will pick first in the June draft.
“We don’t expect to win,” Leafs assistant general manager Kyle Dubas said. “It’s all about percentages. We’ve got a 9.5 per cent chance of winning. I don’t believe in all that superstition and praying and trying to put hexes on the lottery.
“We’ll likely pick fourth or fifth. However it unfolds, we’ll be ready to go on June 27.”
The Newmarket-born McDavid is most often compared to Sidney Crosby, even by Crosby himself. Old- er scouts liken McDavid to legend Wayne Gretzky.
“He’s a very special player,” Dubas said. “Everything you hear about him off the ice — his work ethic, his commitment to improving and getting to better and wanting to be great — is all there.”
The Leafs, owner of the fourthworst record in the NHL this season, have a 9.5 per cent chance of winning. Buffalo, the worst team, has a 20 per cent chance. Boston, the best of the non-playoff teams, has a 1 per cent chance.
“Connor is a generational-type player,” said Brian Lawton, himself a former top pick, who became an agent and NHL executive after his playing days. “We’re talking Crosby, we’re talking (Mario) Lemieux. He’s definitely pegged as that kind of player.
“What does it mean financially? It’s going to be a windfall for the organization that selects him. Then you’re into the most important thing, what it means to the franchise on ice. That is astronomical.”
In the case of Buffalo, Arizona, Edmonton or Toronto, Lawton said the playoffs could still be a couple of years away. Remember, the Penguins missed the playoffs in Crosby’s first year.
“If the Toronto Maple Leafs get him, I don’t think they make the playoffs next year,” he said. “But I’d be pretty darn happy if I was the Toronto Maple Leafs.”
McDavid, along with Erie Otters teammate Dylan Strome — the fourth-ranked prospect — and thirdranked Boston College defenceman Noah Hanifin will be in Toronto for the lottery, as will representatives of teams with the biggest chance.
Jack Eichel, the No. 2 prospect from Boston University, will miss the event due to a family commitment, according to reports. He is also considered a franchise player — so much so the Sabres may not mind if another team swoops in to grab first overall.
As far as Lawton can tell, the difference between McDavid and Eichel is close to the difference debated in 2004 between Alex Ovechkin, who went first overall to Washington, and Evgeni Malkin, who went second to Pittsburgh.
“Two superstar players,” said Lawton. “I don’t think you can go wrong if Buffalo ends up with Eichel. It’s still going to be amazing for them to get a player of his calibre.”
As for the Leafs, Dubas is more concerned with who to take with their second first-round pick, taken from Nashville for Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli.
Dubas was scouting the WHL playoffs this week. Mark Hunter, the team’s director of player personnel, is at the world under-18 tournament in Switzerland.
“We know those players that are going to be in consideration between one and five,” Dubas said. “Now we’re starting to shift our focus to the Nashville pick we hold.”