Budget will apply makeup to Tory blemishes
Joe Oliver may be delivering his maiden budget Tuesday, but he will give a nod to tradition by trying on a pair of new, no doubt sensible, shoes at a North York store Monday.
Beyond that time-worn gesture, nothing is really unspooling according to the grand plan for the Conservatives as they deliver a pre-election manifesto they had been aiming at for more than four years.
Oliver will be delivering nothing but good news that will likely sound rather discordant against the reality — zero growth in the first quarter for the Canadian economy, a landscape strewn with retail deaths not to be viewed by the squeamish and oil prices that should best be forecast with a dart and a blindfold.
It will be a budget that will be short on grand gestures, but will be used to apply to some makeup on Conservative blemishes, micro-target constituencies the party needs in October and reach out to other voters not necessarily in the Tory fold with money that will include longtime horizons and asterisks.
This much appears certain: There will be money for national security, something Stephen Harper believes is a winning card.
As the government’s anti-terror legislation moves toward final approval in the Commons, the Conservatives will provide more resources for the RCMP, CSIS and possibly the Security and Intelligence Review Committee, to blunt any criticism that they are asking too much of those agencies or underfunding oversight with their current level of funding.
The money will be there “to allow C-51 to be properly enforced,’’ said one source, referring to the antiterror bill.
There will be money for seniors, a reliable Conservative voting bloc.
That could be in the form of reform to rules requiring seniors to withdraw a minimum amount from their registered retirement income funds.
A move to double the limit of taxfree savings account contributions to $11,000 will also be in the budget, an initiative that has been criticized for benefiting the affluent, but will be popular with seniors prohibited from contributing to RRSPs looking for another savings instrument.
There may also be a program for family members providing care for aging parents.
According to the Canadian Medical Association, more than a third of employed Canadians are also pro- viding informal care to a family member or friend, costing the economy $1.3 billion in workforce productivity. It cites Statistics Canada in projecting the number of seniors requiring care is projected to double by 2031.
There will be money for infrastructure, likely transit, something that could woo voters in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal, but the money should be studied for its timing — how long it will take for the money to actually flow and whether it is all new money.
In Toronto, Conservatives hope such a move would win the support of Mayor John Tory and at least blunt some of the criticism from Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne.
Much of this budget, an increase in the universal child benefit and a much-maligned form of income splitting, has already been announced and is being heavily advertised, as anyone who has tuned into the NHL playoffs could attest.
There may be a wild card to watch Tuesday. Climate change.
If this is a budget to buttress Conservative weak spots, the political timing could never be better for this government to at least nod toward this country’s sorry record on greenhouse gas emissions.
Harper’s lack of action on climate change has hurt him at home and abroad. The Barack Obama administration in the U.S. is essentially ignoring the Conservatives when they come calling on climate and even the Alberta oilpatch knows that government environmental inaction is behind stalled resource projects.
Provinces are moving on climate change and the Harper Conservatives have already missed a deadline to announce greenhouse gas emission targets for an international summit in Paris in December.
There is no national leadership, just national sniping at anyone looking for a solution.
Some type of action on climate change in this budget has been discussed in government circles, but it may come down to credibility. Harper may feel something on the climate that looks shiny but is inexpensive would only draw mockery after years of eroding credibility on the file.
It would be tempting to take a safer route in a pre-election manifesto.
Spending on families, seniors and security, then daring the opposition to take tax cuts and security measures off the table, would be that safer route. Tim Harper is a national affairs writer. His column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday. tharper@thestar.ca Twitter: @nutgraf1