Time running short for Trudeau’s economic plan

One of the biggest challenges Justin Trudeau faces is his lack of economic heft. The Liberal leader has no business or financial experience. The closest he has ever come to a Laffer Curve was teaching elementary school arithmetic a decade ago.

None of the positions he has held in Parliament — critic for multiculturalism and youth, critic for secondary education and amateur sport and critic for citizenship and immigration — required financial literacy.

His forays into the economic realm as party leader have consisted chiefly of attacks on Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s record and vague promises to invest in infrastructure, post-secondary education, innovation and entrepreneurship.

Weak economic credentials aren’t an insurmountable impediment. Trudeau’s father, who was prime minister for 15 years, had a limited knowledge of economics. It didn’t prevent him from winning — or keeping — the highest office. But Pierre Trudeau had a succession of strong finance ministers, a circle of advisers who could brief him well enough to answer questions knowledgeably in the House of Commons and a bureaucracy loaded with economic experts.

Justin Trudeau will have to follow the same model. But unlike his father, he leads a shrunken party that’s been out of power for 10 years. He will soon be fighting an election against a ruthless incumbent and a fiscally responsible NDP leader. This fall’s campaign will take place in an era of non-stop social media, saturation advertising and sophisticated polling at a time of weak growth, rising income inequality and deeply rooted anti-tax sentiment.

Trudeau does have a few economic heavy-hitters on his team. The three most prominent are:

Ralph Goodale, 65, who served as finance minister under Paul Martin. The veteran Saskatchewan MPwas first elected at age 24 under Trudeau’s father. He has done nearly every job in the book — minister of agriculture, minister of natural resources, minister of public works — always performing competently, seldom memorably.

Scott Brison, 47, the party’s current finance critic. The Nova Scotia MP, a former investment banker, was elected in 2000 as Progressive Conservative but crossed the floor to the Liberals when Harper took over the party and eliminated its “progressive” elements. He served briefly as minister of public works under Paul Martin, making him Canada’s first openly gay cabinet minister.

Bill Morneau, 52, founder and executive chairman of Morneau Shepell, an international employee benefits firm. The Toronto business executive, who has a master’s degree from the London School of Economics and an MBA from Fountainbleau University in France, recently won the Liberal nomination in Toronto Centre.

All three have been out promoting the Liberal vision in recent weeks — Brison just this past Friday at the Canadian Club of Toronto — but they have no clear plan to sell. They point out the obvious — growth is sluggish, job creation is weak, household debt is at a record high and austerity hasn’t spurred private investment — and outline their approach.

The details will come, Liberal insiders promise, after this week’s federal budget. Once Trudeau and his inner circle know how much money is available, they’ll decide how many of their plans they can afford. Then they’ll start rolling out their platform.

It is late in the game. Parliament adjourns for its summer recess on June 23. That effectively shuts down political debate until Labour Day. And getting policy out isn’t the only hurdle Trudeau has to clear. He has to internalize enough of his party’s economic blueprint to explain and defend it confidently on the hustings and perform competently in the televised leaders’ debates.

No matter how well his strategists brief him and his colleagues back him up, he’ll be alone in the spotlight for much of the campaign. The media don’t focus on teams. Voters don’t rate leaders on their bench strength. Both Harper and NDP leader Tom Mulcair know economic management is Trudeau’s Achilles heel. Both have watched in bemusement as the Liberal leader has crossed the country touting his “smart economic plan” without divulging specifics.

A case can certainly be made that Canada could have done better with a prime minister who wasn’t blinded by the untapped wealth of oilsands, consumed with cost-cutting and oblivious to the widening gap between the affluent few and the stalled many. But that is not enough. Trudeau will have to show voters he has a better alternative and he can deliver it.

Both Harper and Mulcair know economic management is Trudeau’s Achilles heel

Carol Goar’s column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday.