Finch LRT plan could reshape Sheppard transit debate,

Putting Finch West light rail ahead in the queue revives optimism for a switch to tunnel expansion in Scarborough

Could the latest in the years of delays on the Sheppard Ave. East LRT trigger the reset button on transit plans for northeast Scarborough?

Subway advocates hope so. They were rubbing their hands in delight when the province announced it won’t even begin building a Sheppard LRT until at least 2021, after the Finch West light rail project is supposed to be complete. They hope the delay will give them time to persuade the city to skip the LRT and instead extend the Sheppard subway from the existing Don Mills station to the Scarborough Town Centre.

This despite the fact many of the city’s transit gurus say the ridership numbers won’t support lengthening the four-stop Sheppard subway. Plus, justifying “finishing” the existing line is difficult when it draws so few riders and is estimated to require an operating subsidy of at least $10 per ride.

“Nobody wants to hear it, but there is no corridor left in Toronto with ridership numbers that justify a subway,” said one transit official, who wouldn’t be named for fear of fanning political flames.

Prospective subway lines continue to dominate debate, with a Danforth extension to Scarborough, a Yonge extension to Richmond Hill and a relief line still on the books. But the rest of Toronto’s 24 transit priorities are all LRT routes or bus rapid transit (BRT), says chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat.

“The idea that there’s some mysterious route that really should be a subway that we had identified as an LRT, I believe is unlikely,” she said.

As it studies the ridership implications of GO regional express rail and SmartTrack on the rest of the network, the city is refining its forecasting models, said Keesmaat. Toronto doesn’t want to put buses in areas that warrant light rail. But it doesn’t want to over-build either.

35,800:

Typical number of daily weekday riders on the six TTC bus routes that serve Sheppard Ave. E. between Don Mills Station and Morningside Ave.

30,400:

Typical number of daily weekday riders on the 36 Finch West bus which serves the Finch LRT route between Keele St. and Humber College

17 million:

TTC’s forecast annual ridership for Sheppard East LRT

27 million:

TTC’s forecast annual ridership if the Sheppard subway were extended to Scarborough Centre.

6,000:

Riders per hour forecast to take the Sheppard East LRT at Yonge St.

7,800:

Riders per hour forecast to take a Sheppard subway to Scarborough Centre

10,000:

Minimum number of riders per hour considered appropriate for subway to a maximum of 30,000.

8,000:

Minimum riders per hour considered appropriate for LRT operating in its own lane.

3,000:

Minimum riders per hour considered appropriate for bus rapid transit operating in its own lane to a maximum of 8,000

53:

Minutes it would take to travel by subway and bus between the Sheppard Station on the Yonge subway and Morningside Dr.

48:

Minutes it would take to make the same trip if the Sheppard subway were extended to Warden Ave.

43:

Minutes it would take with subway and LRT from Don Mills to Morningside.