Bloc’s demise would dim Péladeau’s sovereignty dreams
MONTREAL— The Parti Québécois chose media tycoon Pierre Karl Péladeau as its leader last Friday based on the belief he would breathe new life into the flagging cause of sovereignty and do so quickly. For the baby boomers who make up the backbone of the PQ, time to reach the coveted destination of independence is of the essence.
But unless the Bloc Québécois rises from the dead in October, the first Quebec vote to take place on PKP’s watch will turn into yet another sovereigntist wake.
At this juncture, resurrecting the federal party is lining up to be a tall order.
The Bloc has not been in first place in voting intentions in Quebec since its 2011 defeat at the hands of the NDP. Provincewide, it usually ranks third behind the Liberals and the NDP, just ahead of the Conservatives. Because the latter’s support is heavily concentrated in the larger Quebec City area, Stephen Harper’s party is currently favoured to win more seats than the BQ next fall.
With only one MP running for re-election and in the absence of a leader in the House of Commons, the Bloc has on occasion gone for weeks since 2011 without rating more than a passing mention in the mainstream Quebec media.
Almost a year into the tenure of sovereigntist activist Mario Beaulieu, the latest Bloc leader remains unknown to many Quebec voters. Most of them will see him in action for the first time on the podium of the French-language election debate(s) this year. His own election campaign, in a Montreal inner-city riding currently represented by the NDP, is expected to be an uphill battle.
The Bloc would need the political equivalent of divine intervention if it is to avoid being unceremoniously consigned to the dustbin of history in the fall.
For many sovereigntists, that divine intervention is expected to take the shape of an incoming PQ leader considered by more than a few of his followers to have the ability to walk on water.
If he could, Péladeau might be tempted to pass on a potentially programmed-to-fail rescue mission. He is a late convert to the merits of a sovereigntist presence on Parliament Hill.
Early in his leadership campaign, he voiced doubts as to the relevance of the Bloc, only to have to backtrack in the face of a nascent backlash within party ranks.
Now — and whether he likes it or not — the upcoming federal election is poised to be the first real-life test of his capacity to nurse sovereigntist fortunes back to health.
If only for the sake of the fractious movement he is trying to reunite behind him, Péladeau would be hard-pressed to sit out the federal campaign while the PQ’s sister party fights for its life.
A fatal Bloc defeat would take wind out of Péladeau’s sails, but sitting on his hands while the federal ship sinks could compound the damage.
PKP has, after all, promised to make the pursuit of sovereignty his overriding concern. As it happens, that has also been Beaulieu’s mantra. He has now taken to quoting his new PQ partner at every opportunity.
The Bloc is the only sovereigntist option on the federal ballot. In theory, voting for the party should be a no-brainer for anyone partaking in a PKP-induced sovereigntist revival.
After all, when it comes to supporting sovereignty in the abstract, casting a ballot for the Bloc comes second only to telling a pollster that one would vote yes in the hypothetical event of another referendum.
As of last weekend, according to Léger Marketing, the proportion of Yes voters stood at 42 per cent and support for the PKP-led PQ at 34 per cent. If he has even a fraction of the power of attraction that his supporters believe, should not Péladeau’s presence in the sovereigntist window bring enough traffic to the Bloc to keep it in business?
Not that the PQ does not have a script ready for any federal outcome.
Over the past two decades it has always cast the Bloc’s successes as great omens for sovereignty and its setbacks as meaningless ones for its cause. The reverse has tended to be true. Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.