Tories play risky game with politics of division
Political magnetism attracts but it is equally repulsive. This is the Newtonian reality that campaign managers enthralled with a charismatic leader or their cleverest divisive wedge too often forget. Traditional coalition-building political giants — Pierre Trudeau, Brian Mulroney, Jean Chrétien — keenly aware of the risks of a strategy of division, always delivered a rainbow-coloured vision, one designed to unite, not divide.
The magnetic appeal of the Harper agenda of division never attracted more than two out of five Canadians. Those voters whose fears, anger and paranoia drive their political choice were persuaded. Those who yearn for a politics that makes them proud, that appeals to what Abraham Lincoln eloquently dubbed our “better angels,” were not.
The shot of a scowling Bernard Valcourt, aboriginal affairs minister, refusing to join in a standing ovation at last week’s Truth and Reconciliation ceremonies was iconic of the difference. Sitting alone, staring in angry defiance at the hundreds of Canadians surrounding him, Tom Mulcair gazing down at him in a combination of disgust and incredulity, was a picture worth a thousand words of political analysis.
Those members of the Harper base who agree that the hundreds of murdered and missing aboriginal women and girls are merely a police investigation waiting to happen were no doubt attracted by this show of obduracy. The far greater majority of Canadians who believe that no civilized society can so disgracefully ignore such a national shame were no doubt equally repelled.
Herein lies the power and genius of the Harper approach to politics: with a divided opposition a politics of division can triumph with the support of only two out five Canadians. It has worked for the hard right and the hard left in dozens of countries, often for long periods. Until it doesn’t, when it often ends in a spectacular defeat.
The fundamental flaw is this: if only a few thousand Canadians, in the right ridings, move from attraction to repulsion, cohering around the strongest opponent, a massive defeat follows. The margin of error in this small tent politics is razor thin. With a double-digit Green vote likely in some places such as Victoria and London, Toronto and Vancouver, Harper’s MPs could be retired by the shift of one or two families per poll.
If the recent levelling of support for the three main parties continues, the Harperites will face every political strategist’s nightmare — a war on two fronts. The enfeebled NDP in Harper’s first two campaigns meant he could pound Paul Martin and the hapless Stéphane Dion relentlessly. The enfeebled Liberals under professor Michael Ignatieff allowed Tory artillery to target him daily, with only occasional fire at the NDP in their few regional bases. That is until E-21 in 2011, when poll numbers from Quebec signalled the incoming Orange wave. Then the Harper strategists scrambled to fight two challengers in the campaign’s closing days in the GTA and the Lower Mainland of B.C.
This time will be different almost everywhere. Among the ripple effects of Alberta’s decimation of the oldest governing party in the democratic world is a riding-by-riding reassessment by every party strategist.
If downtown Edmonton and Calgary voted overwhelmingly for the Alberta Orange team, will they do it again for their federal cousins only a few months later? If the Liberals are able to demonstrate they are the best “Harper-killers” in their traditional strongholds in Winnipeg, Regina and Saskatoon, do they put a series of Western Canadian urban ridings in play?
The cloud hanging over the Harper team, as it was for the Jim Prentice defenders, is the acquired arrogance of power: Indiscipline, unforced errors, sudden resignations and clueless political reactions — the sure signs of political decay. In recent days, the Harper regime has suffered John Baird’s and Peter Mackay’s rapid exits; created an angry reaction to their surveillance state agenda from their own base; and been left sputtering in frustration at the revelations of Mike Duffy’s trial, knowing that upcoming witnesses and testimony will move the accusing fingers ever closer to the prime minister.
Previous generations of Canadian political strategists and their leaders facing the same issues — the whiff of scandal and decay in a government visibly running out of gas — typically responded by attempting to rebuild and renew their winning coalitions. This government, uniquely in Canadian history, continues to slice away supporters. Its famous base is powerfully loyal, very likely to vote — and very unlikely to grow. The political magnetism of anti-establishment, antigovernment populism never attracted more than 39 per cent of Canadians.
After a decade in power, the magnetic repulsion necessarily built into such a strategy may now peel off the few thousands of voters who stand between a new Harper majority and an Orange or a Red resounding victory.
The Harper government, uniquely in Canadian history, continues to slice away supporters. Its famous base is loyal, but very unlikely to grow