NDP’s lead is growing, according to Forum poll

OTTAWA— Tom Mulcair’s New Democrats have widened their lead in the latest horse race, polling from Forum Research shows.

Forum puts the NDP at 36 per cent nationally among decided voters, a comfortable margin over the Conservatives and Liberals, who are tied at 28 per cent. With four months to go before October’s election, Forum projects the NDP could capture 149 seats — just 21 shy of forming a majority government.

Regionally, the New Democrats lead in the three largest provinces — British Columbia (54 per cent), Quebec (36 per cent), and Ontario (34 per cent).

But the worst news from the Forum poll for the Conservatives is not their place among decided voters — it’s that they appear to have little room to grow.

When asked what party would be their second choice to win, only 9 per cent of respondents said they’d choose the Conservatives. A much larger number would choose either the Liberals (23 per cent) or the NDP (22 per cent) as their second choice to form government.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is also last among the three main party leaders in terms of approval rating, with 30 per cent saying they approve of the job he’s doing and 61 per cent saying they disapprove. Not surprisingly, Harper’s approval is highest among Conservative voters (87 per cent) and in Alberta (41per cent).

Mulcair enjoyed a 50 per cent approval rating, while 38 per cent of respondents said they approve of the job Justin Trudeau is doing.

Forum conducted the polling on June 22-23, surveying 1,268 Canadians. The results are considered accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Regional samples are less accurate.