NDP still has slight lead, new poll says

OTTAWA— The opposition New Democrats are maintaining a slight lead in the latest numbers from Forum Research, but most still believe the governing Conservatives will win the coming federal election.

The NDP are sitting at 32 per cent, down slightly from a high watermark of 36 per cent in Forum’s polling last week. Forum puts the Liberals at 29 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 27 per cent, a number that has not significantly changed over the last three weeks.

Based on the current numbers, Forum projects a “deadlocked” House of Commons with the NDP eking out a small majority of 119 MPs with the Liberals and Conservatives virtually tied in seat count (106 and 104 respectively).

The upside for the New Democrats is that Opposition Leader Tom Mulcair remains popular, in his job approval in opposition and suitability for the country’s top political job. A little more than half of respondents, 53 per cent, said they approve of Mulcair’s work in opposition. Even 32 per cent of self-identified Conservatives approve of his performance.

Twenty-nine per cent said Mulcair is the best choice for prime minister. The current prime minister, Stephen Harper, was seen as the best option for 25 per cent of respondents, while Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau was ranked first by 21 per cent.

Despite being seen as the country’s second best option for prime minster, Harper faired far worse in personal popularity — fully 61per cent of respondents disapproved of Harper’s performance. That disapproval is most pronounced among young Canadians and those approaching middle age.

Still, 30 per cent of respondents expect the Conservatives to win.

Forum conducted its poll on June 28 and 29, interviewing 1,221 randomly selected voting-aged Canadians. Results are considered accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.