Iran nuclear deal would change world
In the same way we remember when Richard Nixon went to China, when the Berlin Wall fell and when the Soviet empire collapsed, next week may be one that historians regard as memorable.
All signs emerging from the Iran nuclear talks underway in Vienna point to the probability that next week, probably Tuesday, there will finally be a deal.
After years of intensive negotiations and the constant risk of catastrophic military conflict, the world’s six leading powers and the Islamic Republic of Iran appear to be on the brink of announcing a historic nuclear agreement. This weekend, they are working on compromises to the final key sticking points regarding sanctions relief and access to Iran’s military facilities.
The deal would limit Iran’s nuclear program to peaceful, not military, purposes, and eventually eliminate the international sanctions crippling Iran. But it has the potential to accomplish much more.
The summer of 2015 may be remembered as the period when this century’s history turned in a breathtakingly new and unpredictable direction.
After 35 years of bitter relations with the U.S. and virtual isolation by the West, the home of one of the world’s great civilizations appears ready once more to become a credible member of the international community. What is certain is that any constructive partnership between Iran and the West, which existed before the revolution of 1979, would dramatically change the strategic balance in the Middle East.
For decades, the driving dynamic of the Middle East has relied on a marginalized, isolated role for Shia Muslim Iran. This has served the interests of its Sunni rivals, such as Saudi Arabia, as well as those of Israel. But now, the idea of a newly empowered Iran with its economic potential is a game-changer.
Iran’s reformist leadership un- doubtedly welcomes that prospect. For his part, U.S. President Barack Obama sees Iran — a mortal enemy of the so-called Islamic State extremists — as potentially part of the region’s solution.
But even after a deal is announced, both sides know there is still heavy lifting ahead of them. Hardliners in Iran and the U.S., as well as in Israel and the Gulf states, are horrified at the thought of Iran coming in from the cold. They will work tirelessly to kill the deal.
If the deal is concluded by next week, the U.S. Congress — now dominated by Republicans — will have 30 days to examine the details. During that time, Obama will be unable to suspend U.S. sanctions against Iran. But even if Congress “rejects” the deal, he could veto that resolution and most observers believe that Congress does not have the votes to override his veto.
The prospect of a final deal being concluded next week is not only the result of months of tough, detailed negotiations. There were also years of secret, clandestine exchanges between the two countries. Early in his presidency, Obama indicated to the Iranians that he wanted relations between their two countries normalized. And both sides, usually in secrecy, worked hard to achieve that.
It is useful to remember that this was not the first effort at bringing together these two bitter rivals. There was an earlier attempt at a potential “Grand Bargain” between Iran and the U.S. in 2003, during the administration of George W. Bush.
This was recounted by Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, in a book he wrote — A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran — based on dozens of interviews with high-level government and intelligence sources.
In 2003, as Parsi recounts, Iran secretly proposed to give the West virtually everything it wanted — such as ending support of Hamas, reining in Hezbollah in Lebanon and co-operation with nuclear inspectors — in exchange for ironclad guarantees that the West would no longer pursue “regime change” in Iran. The Bush administration rejected the offer.
If this deal is announced next week, it will be the most-important foreign policy achievement in Obama’s presidency. It will come only days after he announced that the U.S. is resuming diplomatic relations with Cuba. In the final 18 months of his presidency, Obama certainly seems to be determined to leave a legacy. Tony Burman, former head of CBC News and Al Jazeera English, teaches journalism at Ryerson University. He can be reached at tony.burman@gmail.com or on Twitter @TonyBurman.