Tory win should spark Liberal-NDP coalition, poll suggests
More than two-thirds of Liberal and NDP supporters favour the idea of the parties forming a coalition in the event of a Conservative minority in the Oct. 19 election, according to a new poll by Forum Research.
Of Liberal supporters surveyed, 68 per cent support a coalition, while 75 per cent of NDPers favour the idea — about half of all Canadian voters.
“The two opposition parties have spent the last week dancing around the coalition question, but it appears their sup- porters, especially the New Democrats, have no such qualms. They’re ready to get hitched as soon as a minority Conservative government is elected — if that hap- pens,” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.
Support for a coalition was strongest among young people surveyed — 57 per cent of those between the ages of 18 and 34 favour the idea.
Jamie Cruickshank, 25, of Toronto, likes the idea of a coalition because he believes it would represent the views of a broader segment of voters.
“You’re getting a better cross-section of what people are really looking for,’’ said Cruickshank, a sales associate. The Star’s view Don’t deny the vote to Canadians living abroad. It’s an inherent right of citizenship, A16
Cruickshank said he hasn’t yet decided how he’ll vote in the Oct. 19 election.
Forty per cent of all respondents to the Forum poll don’t support a coalition, while 11 per cent don’t know.
The New Democrats have said publicly they are open to the idea of a coalition, but Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau has poured cold water on the notion.
Another poll by Forum Research this week tracking voter intentions at this point in time has the Conservatives and NDP tied at 33 per cent support, and the Liberals at 25 per cent.
Based on those results the Tories would form a minority government. In the 338-seat House of Commons, the Conservatives would win 156 seats — 14 fewer than they’d need for a majority.
The NDP would grab122 seats, with the Liberals holding the balance of power with 58 seats. The Bloc and Greens would each get one seat.
The Forum survey shows the Conservatives rebounding from last week’s poll, where the Tories were in second place with 28 per cent support — statistically tied with the Liberals. The NDP held the lead last week with 34 per cent support — enough for a minority, according to the pollster.
“It’s clear the Conservatives have gained favour in the last week.’’ LORNE BOZINOFF FORUM RESEARCH PRESIDENT
Bozinoff attributes much of the bump in Tory fortunes this week to Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government doling out its “Christmas in July’’ cheques to families last week as part of the Universal Child Care Benefit increases.
“It’s clear the Conservatives have gained favour in the last week,’’ Bozinoff said.
Both new surveys on the coalition question, and voter support for each of the parties, were conducted July 27 and 28.
In both polls Forum’s results are based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,397 randomly selected Canadian adults. The results are considered accurate plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Forum’s poll is weighted statistically by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data. The weighting formula has been shared with the Star, and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.