PM’s campaign doesn’t sell much
OTTAWA— Stephen Harper has proved he knows how to spend your money.
An orgy of pre-election spending topped $1 billion for a single day, sprinkled through Canadian ridings Thursday.
Friday, the gas tax allocation was doled out to all provinces, there was $11.5 million for 26 projects in Saskatchewan, ongoing funding for aboriginal health, an upgrade for the Whitby Harbour, a grant to a Shawinigan company that develops magnetic induction roll heating systems, a loan to a Montreal visual effects company, a grant to a Markham company that makes plastic mufflers, money to repave the parking lot at New Brunswick’s Royal Canadian Legion Lancaster Branch 69, a $59-million loan to Toyota . . .
That is but a 15-minute sample from my inbox. If you are living in a Conservative riding and you did not get a visit from the Tory cash express, you need to ask why. We know Harper can put cheques in your mailbox. He can claim a balanced budget, even if it’s really more a matter of fun with figures.
We know his party is better at raising money than his competitors. He will have more to spend during the campaign, expected to officially begin over this holiday weekend. Now what? As he prepares to launch an 11week campaign, he has to give Canadians a compelling answer as to why he should get to keep a job he has had for almost 10 years.
The above, very partial, list of largesse is not an answer.
A route to re-election has to be more than dipping into overflowing coffers to carpet bomb his rivals.
The historic reach for power by Tom Mulcair and his New Democrats will be a riveting saga between now and Oct. 19 as will the performance of the untested Justin Trudeau as he labours to bring his proud party back into the battle.
But make no mistake, this campaign is going to be all about the guy who is calling it early.
It’s all about Harper because he’s really all the Conservatives have left after this decade.
His bench strength has been depleted. Jason Kenney will again be a valuable lieutenant but John Baird, Peter MacKay, Jim Flaherty, James Moore — all gone. Pierre Poilievre in a Conservative golf shirt is not an asset. And that’s why it is so risky — or bold, depending on your perspective — to put your man out there so early when he is ultimately the subject of a referendum.
Harper has told us the two pillars of his re-election strategy will be the economy and security.
The economy is in a recession or on the verge of one, depending on the criterion you prefer.
Harper will have to pivot, and instead of running as the only man who can keep the economy strong, tell Canadians his experience is needed to turn things around.
Security has waned as an issue, but that doesn’t mean you won’t be hearing a lot about it during this campaign.
But Harper offers a false choice. If you oppose his anti-terror legislation, as Mulcair does, that doesn’t mean you wouldn’t do all you could to keep Canadians safe if elected.
Beyond that, it is hard to see what this government campaigns on.
Harper’s Senate policy announced last week is not a policy. It is a pledge to do nothing and leave it to the provinces.
It mimics Harper’s environmental policy, which is also to do nothing and leave action to the provinces.
This emphasis on the provinces is ironic, of course, because Harper has never sat provincial premiers down to talk about Senate reform or the environment.
Harper and his strategists have quite masterfully manipulated what they can for this race, whether setting debates or determining the length of the campaign.
The prime minister will leave the governor general’s residence and immediately begin a campaign that could stretch over 11 weeks, campaigning six days a week with only one day down for preparation for each debate. Liberals and New Democrats will resist the urge to try to match any Conservative splash in the early days of an August campaign, budgeting for the crucial final weeks when they will need cash to quickly respond to an attack ad or abruptly change a leader’s itinerary based on the needs of the moment.
But they need not dwell on the cost of a longer campaign, or try to play on a voter backlash over a summer campaign.
The cycle for that story will disappear quickly and then they will have to campaign. They have been doing so anyway. Now they will be campaigning on Harper’s terms. Tim Harper is a national affairs writer. His column usually appears Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. tharper@thestar.ca Twitter:@nutgraf1