Electrifying insights on consumers
Who buys plug-in electric cars?
Does battery power alter driving behaviour?
Can electric vehicles advance from their tiny niche in the new car market? If they do, how much will that impact climate change?
Questions, questions, questions. Pondering them is a perfect way to while away a hot summer day; that is, if you really have nothing better to do and have access to a cold beer or two, just to maintain focus.
Some answers are suggested by academics from Vancouver’s Simon Fraser University in “Electrifying Vehicles: Insights from the Canadian Plug-in Electric Vehicle Study.”
The report fills nearly 200 pages, so my estimate of the beer requirement might be a bit low, particularly since the work is a heat wave of statistical jargon.
The researchers divide the world into three types of people, in terms of their relationship to plug-in electric vehicles, or PEVs. “PEV Pioneers” already own one. Those in the “Early Mainstream” might consider it. The “Late Mainstream” group: “No way.” The data come from surveys of Mainstreamers conducted across Canada in 2013 and Pioneers, all from British Columbia, this year.
The conclusions are often obvious, sometimes modestly helpful:
Pioneers tend to have higher incomes and education than the Mainstreamers — tending toward graduate degrees and household incomes greater than $150,000, which helps, given the cost of PEVs — and are more engaged in exploring new technology, seeking environmental benefits or realizing savings. The early Mainstream is slightly younger, more educated and less likely to live in an apartment than the late.
With current electricity grids, PEVs can cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 98 per cent in British Columbia, where most electricity is generated by water power; around 45 per cent in fossil fuel-dominated Alberta; and 58 to 70 per cent in Ontario, with its mix of electricity sources.
The researchers divide the world into three types of people, in terms of their relationship to plug-in electric vehicles
On a typical day, PEV owners, on average, drive 7 per cent more than Mainstreamers in their conventional cars. Most Pioneers also reported their driving increased after they switched to a PEV: they felt less conflict between driving and their environmental leanings, and, particularly among the Tesla owners, they love the cars. Some Pioneers actually admitted that the prospect of guilt-free driving had led them to shift from public transit to car commuting, thus (my comment, not the report’s) adding to congestion.
Both Mainstream groups know little about PEVs, and are particularly confused about plug-in hybrids, which can continue on gasoline power when the battery is depleted. Despite this confusion, nearly onethird of Mainstreamers would consider a PEV, and the “vast majority” of them want a plug-in hybrid rather than battery only.
But here’s the kicker. Most want a plug-in hybrid only if it doesn’t cost much more than a conventional car. Which, until the technology gets a lot cheaper and better, won’t happen without government subsidies. Judging by plug-in hybrids’ low market share, those incentives would need to be higher than they are now. And, given the profile of PEV buyers, they’d tend to favour the well-heeled.
Which raises tough questions the study doesn’t tackle. Should taxpayers fund richer incentives to try to expand the PEV market? And even if that’s considered a worthy goal, would it work or simply transfer more wealth from the many to the few? Freelance writer Peter Gorrie is a regular contributor to Toronto Star Wheels. For more automotive stories, go to thestar.com/autos. To reach Wheels Editor Norris McDonald: nmcdonald@thestar.ca.