TORONTO 2024?
The Pan Am Games triumph and Boston’s now-dead bid have Torontonians buzzing about going after the 2024 Olympic Games. But is it all just noise — or is there really hope? We look at Toronto’s Olympic dreams in 19 questions
So what are Toronto’s chances?
Toronto has lots going for it. The city is in the eastern time zone, allowing the Olympics to be shown in U.S. prime time; that boosts the value of the television rights, a 2013 feasibility city study that looked at Toronto hosting the 2024 Olympics noted.
As well, no North American city has hosted the Summer Olympics since Atlanta in 1996, so 2024 would be a good chance to bring the Games back to this continent, the study said. Toronto’s diversity will also play well with the International Olympic Committee, the Games’ governing body.
Plus, with the successful Pan Am Games behind it, Toronto has now demonstrated it is capable of organizing a large-scale sporting event. Finally, with Boston dropping its bid this month, Toronto has less direct competition from a high-profile U.S. city.
Getting an Olympic Games is so often about being in the right place at the right time. Are things “right” for a Toronto bid?
Since the Second World War, the Summer Olympics have never been out of Europe for more than 12 years in a row. As the 2016 Games will be in Rio de Janeiro and the 2020 Games in Tokyo, tradition may put the Summer Games back in Europe for 2024, according to a City of Toronto report. The report also noted that the IOC views North and South America as one region, so next summer’s Rio Games could work against another bid from the Americas.
The report also included this sobering thought: “The awarding of the Games is a highly political process and there is no guarantee that the best technical bid will be awarded the Games.” How much does it cost to bid?
A 2013 Ernst & Young report prepared for Toronto estimated the cost of a “detailed prebid phase analysis” to be $1 million. The report said if council decides to submit a formal bid, the estimated cost to prepare the necessary supporting documents and promotion costs would range from $50 million to $60 million. How much did Toronto’s failed 2008 Summer Olympics bid cost?
The bid was originally supposed to cost $20 million (in 2001 dollars), all of it to be a fully funded by the private sector. But organizers ended up asking Ottawa and Queen’s Park for $3 million each. What is the timing for a bid?
The IOC has a highly developed and rigorous process to determine host cities. An application to host the 2024 Olympic Games must be submitted to the Canadian Olympic Committee by mid-September. The COC will then submit the bid to the IOC with a $150,000 (U.S.) deposit, backed with financial guarantees from the province and/or federal governments. Over the next two years, there are numerous steps to the bidding process, leading up to the formal presentation of bids to the IOC. The winner will be announced in the summer of 2017 in Lima, Peru. Can Toronto council even get a bid together in time?
Technically, IOC requirements don’t need a vote on record showing city council support to accept an application letter and start Toronto’s bid process. The only thing needed is the mayor’s signature on a letter of intention. Typically, council has voted on whether or not to endorse a Toronto bid.
In 2000, councillors voted 54-2 to bid for the 2008 Games that eventually went to Beijing. That sort of support helps. Plus, a city’s bid gets a serious boost when there is government and public support. Is there support on council?
In January 2014, the city’s economic development committee voted against proceeding with a bid for the 2024 Summer Olympic Games. But that was then. Today, as the city basks in the glow of a successful Pan Am Games, there is a feeling the stars are aligning and a belief this opportunity might not come again anytime soon.
Supporters of a Toronto bid include Deputy Mayor Glen De Baeremaeker, who believes the Olympics will trigger a huge investment in Toronto transit and infrastructure by leveraging money from other levels of government. Some people think it could also spur further waterfront development. Can the city meet the upcoming IOC deadlines?
The 2013 city-commissioned feasibility study included a 2024 Olympic bid timeline that showed numerous IOC/COC deadlines that have already passed. The study concluded that “if significant delays from the timeline ... are realized, it could have a significant negative impact on the city’s ability to host the Games as other potential host cities have already begun to plan for a bid.”
Just days ago, Marcel Aubut, president of the Canadian Olympic Committee, said he will use the full power of his office to lead and advocate Toronto’s candidacy to host the 2024 Olympic Games. Are there penalties if Toronto submits an initial bid in time for September and then pulls out?
The potential penalties are really financial — how much money and hours of work government staff and organizers spend on preparing the bid. In Boston’s case, that appears to be millions of dollars. There could be a silver lining. In 2008, governments committed to speeding up the revitalization of Toronto’s waterfront in anticipation of hosting the 2008 Summer Games, a bid which was lost to Beijing, but jump-started the work on those lands and also saw the creation of Waterfront Toronto.
It’s not clear if the COC could get its $150,000 back. Spokesman Carl Vallée said details on the IOC’s new process have not yet been made public. “More soon,” he promised. During a recent interview on Sportsnet 590 The Fan, Mayor John Tory said: “There’s no money involved in that that’s taxpayer’s money. There’s a deposit of $150,000 that comes from the Canadian Olympic Committee.” Why did Boston pull out?
After selecting Boston last January, the U.S. Olympic Committee withdrew its bid for the 2024 Summer Olympics this week citing a lack of support among residents. The announcement came after Mayor Martin J. Walsh told a news conference the committee was pushing him to sign a host city contract that would leave taxpayers on the hook for any Olympic-related cost overruns.
The Boston Globe reported “millions” were spent in the seven preceding months, “ending a tumultuous effort racked by acrimonious debate, public relations blunders, and limited public support.” The newspaper reported Los Angeles is now the likeliest American contender, though it “may also lift the fortunes of a potential 2024 bid from Toronto, which just finished hosting the Pan Am Games.” What did Boston spend on the bid?
Bid organizers Boston 2024 Partnership raised more than $14 million (U.S.) from private donors. In an email to the Star, opposition group No Boston Olympics said its conservative estimate was that $15 million was spent on the failed bid compared to its budget of $10,000. Who else is bidding for the 2024 Olympic Games?
Paris, Rome, Hamburg, Germany and Budapest have all announced they intend to bid. With Boston out, are all U.S. cities now out of contention?
Until Boston’s bid imploded, there was widespread speculation the Games were theirs to lose. The U.S. has not hosted a Summer Olympics since 1996 in Atlanta after rejections for the 2012 (London) and 2016 (Rio de Janeiro) Games.
But just because Boston is out, doesn’t mean there isn’t still room for another U.S. city to step forward, including Los Angeles. Bob Barney, founder of the Western University’s International Centre for Olympic Studies, said the U.S. generates significant financial interest for Olympic organizers, including lucrative television rights and international sponsorship deals.
“Sooner or later, the United States is going to have to be served in terms of hosting the Games and they haven’t hosted them since 1996,” Barney said. How much would it cost for Toronto to host the Games?
The city has already explored how much hosting the Summer Games might cost. That figure is estimated to be between $8.7 billion and $17.1 billion before cost overruns, according to the Ernst & Young report. And the risk of cost overruns is no small thing. Studies have found an Olympic Games has never been put on without massive cost overruns.
The London 2012 Games’ final cost, by comparison, came in at £8.921bil- lion — about $18.1 billion (Canadian). Host cities usually have to cover cost overruns. Montreal used a special tobacco tax to finance its $1.5-billion debt from the 1976 Summer Olympics. It took 30 years to pay it off. If Toronto were to win a bid, who pays to host the Games?
Typically, the cost of hosting an international event of this scale would be shared between municipal, provincial and federal governments, with Queen’s Park and Ottawa shouldering the bulk of the budget, including for pricey necessities like security. It was estimated the city would need to pay $500 million to $1 billion of the total cost. Where would the sports be held? In Toronto or spread out across the GTA like the Pan Am Games?
It is unlikely the more than 300 events involved in the Summer Games could be held within Toronto’s borders, with city staff pointing out available land on which to build new venues is clearly “limited.”
According to the feasibility study, the redeveloped Port Lands, totalling some 250 hectares, would be prime territory to host the main Olympic Stadium, the athletes village and other venues. It follows on similar plans put forward during the 2008 bid, which also pitched the Port Lands as a main site and included several GTA locations for venues. What venues will be needed? How many of the Pan Am venues can be repurposed?
For starters, a new athletes’ village — for twice the number of athletes — and a bigger ceremonies stadium would be needed. Almost none of the venues built expressly for Pan Am is up to Olympic standards. The velodromes and aquatic centres at the London and Beijing Games had three times the seating capacity of Toronto’s newly built facilities. Athletics stadiums, which double as the ceremonies venues, held at least 70,000 at the past three Summer Games.
The new athletics stadium built for the Pan Am Games at York University seats 12,000. The Rogers Centre seats 54,000. The required capacity of the venues is often beyond the host’s control, according to Janice Forsyth, director of the International Centre for Olympic Studies at Western.
The IOC, international sports federations, broadcasters and sponsors often play a role in dictating the size. “It’s not just about sport. It’s about selling an industry,” she said. “Because it’s partly about ticket sales and it’s partly about the television spectacle.”
And though the IOC recently mandated all venues be sustainable, and allowed for flexibility, including temporary additions, researcher Bob Barney isn’t confident many hosts will take up that offer. “They don’t want to be looked upon as coming off second class against past Olympic hosts.” How do the Olympics compare in size to the Pan Am Games?
In terms of participating countries, the Pan Am Games are about a fifth of the size of the Summer Olympics, with only 41nations compared with a possible 204.
“The Pan Ams are like high school and the Olympic Games are like Oxford,” Forsyth said. The Summer Games are capped at 10,500 athletes, whereas Pan Am included about 6,000 athletes.
One area in which the regional games win is the number of sporting events: 36 at Pan Am versus 26 at the London Games. But the IOC recently scrapped a 28-sport cap, paving the way for more sports to be added to the 2020 Tokyo Games and beyond. Does Toronto really need this to be considered a world-class city?
Not really, but it can’t hurt. The Summer Olympics have been hosted by many of the world’s top cities, including Paris, Tokyo and Mexico City. But “world-class” cities are also overlooked to host the Games. Madrid, a great world city, has never won an Olympic bid. New York City has also never hosted a Games.
There is plenty already that puts Toronto on the world stage. The city got top marks from KPMG for its tax competitiveness and Forbes calls it the tenth most-influential city.
When it comes to livability, the Economist Intelligence Unit ranks Toronto fourth in the world. But categories that might matter to people who live in the city, like health care and child care, aren’t included in the Olympic rubric.
“Usually what they’re referring to is the best entertainment city in the world . . . a world-class city for tourism and not necessarily for the residents,” Forsyth said.
The “world-class” argument plays well for any civic leaders competing for attention on an international scale, says Olympic researcher Barney.
“Being known as a world-class city in the context of globalization goes a long way for the city’s political life and economic life and social life,” he said. Compiled by Betsy Powell, Sarah-Joyce Battersby and Jennifer Pagliaro