Long campaign has risks and rewards
Harper expected to drop the writ this morning, sparking a historically long race that could backfire, analysts warn
Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s decision to trigger a marathon campaign plays to Conservative strengths but flirts with danger, political observers say.
The 11-week race allows Harper to deploy the party’s massive financial war chest, but it’s a bold move to put a nine-year-old government in the shop window from the dog days of summer to the brisk nights of autumn.
An advisory from the Prime Minister’s Office late Saturday said Harper is scheduled to meet with Gov. Gen. David Johnston at 10 a.m. today.
That visit is expected to trigger an election.
“There are risks for the prime minister and the Conservatives in a long campaign,” warned Ottawa consultant and strategist Bruce Anderson of Anderson Insight, who said the Liberals and NDP bring “more new ideas” to tempt voters.
“If there’s one idea on trial in an election it’s the incumbent. Observing what he’s done hasn’t made more people decide they want more of him.
“He’s got to find a way to make change seem too scary.”
That effort is well underway, with a steady blitz of Conservative ads portraying Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau as “just not ready.”
“They’ve marked up the Liberals, now they’ll move to the NDP,” said Marcel Wieder of Aurora Strategies in Toronto.
OTTAWA— Stephen Harper is gunning for the history books in this campaign: winning four straight elections would make him just one of three prime ministers to achieve such a feat.
But to do it, the Conservative leader will have to shake off fatigue in his government, stir up voter worries about his rivals, and hope the economy — the foundation upon which he has staked his government’s credentials — doesn’t worsen.
History is against Harper. No prime minister has achieved four wins in a row in more than a century. But Conservative strategists are betting that Canadians aren’t voting with history books in mind.
“I don’t think these decisions are made on that basis,” one strategist told the Star. “They’re made on the basis of who you think the best person is to lead the country for the next five years.”
“If he didn’t feel good about it, he wouldn’t be running,” the strategist said.
Still, the decision by cabinet ministers such as James Moore, Peter MacKay, Christian Paradis, Shelly Glover and several dozen other Tory MPs not to run for re-election has added to the perception of a government in its final stages.
Tim Powers, a Conservative commentator and vice-chairman of Summa Strategies, says the surprise election call — coming weeks earlier than expected — is part of a strategy by the Tories to set the agenda and issues for the campaign on their own terms and get ahead of any public appetite for change.
“He tries to prevent that from being the question. This is about agenda-setting,” Powers said of Harper’s election call, which is expected this holiday weekend. “If this was in September, the fatigue, the time for change stuff becomes more probable as a ballot question.”
A fourth straight election win would be a crowning achievement for Harper, the cementing of a political dynasty born out of the 2003 merger between his Canadian Alliance party and the Progressive Conservative party.
Since his first victory in 2006, Harper has built the Conservative brand on economic management, law and order, and populist tax cuts and credits, such as reductions in the goods and services tax.
Those are the issues that will underpin this Conservative campaign too, with Harper pitched as a competent, experienced leader.
Pollster Frank Graves acknowledges Tory strengths but says this coming campaign is no cakewalk for Harper or his party.
After more than nine years in power, the Conservatives are facing the inevitable call for change and growing wariness about the state of the Canadian economy.
“His challenge is most daunting of all the leaders,” Graves said, adding that the public is seeking new economic policies. “For most people it’s a dog’s breakfast of stagnation and in some cases decline with a very uncertain future.” Harper will also have to brace for possibly damning revelations out of the fraud and bribery trial of former Conservative Mike Duffy. The trial resumes Aug. 12 with Nigel Wright, Harper’s former chief of staff, taking the stand to discuss his $90,000 payment to Duffy to cover questionable expenses rung up by the senator.
But some things are falling into place. The enhanced child benefits that went out in July may give the Tories a boost at the polls.
And come election day, Harper is hoping that voter jitters about NDP policies and the experience of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau will serve up another win for his Tories.