Toronto Star

Profiles of the four national leaders,

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“We haven’t had much of a response from either of them. It means they’re trying to conserve their cash.”

Anti-Mulcair attack ads are being prepared for broadcast.

Conservati­ve commentato­r Tim Powers says the early call catches the opposition off guard, allows the Tories to define the campaign issues on their terms and woo swing ridings crucial to the final result on Oct. 19.

“If the campaign started after Labour Day, it would be more difficult,” Powers, vicechairm­an of Summa Strategies, said.

He sees the extended race as an attempt to blunt the momentum of the NDP, leading in many polls, and turn up the scrutiny on Mulcair, who, like Trudeau, is in his first national campaign. This is Harper’s fifth.

“If Tom Mulcair is the prime minister in waiting, well, he’s going to have a longer period of time to go through the full job interview,” Powers said.

But there could be backlash if opposition parties succeed in portraying Harper’s early call as what Anderson dubbed an “ethically grey” and bare-knuckle use of election laws for partisan advantage.

“It’s blatantly unfair,” said Alice Funke of PunditsGui­de.ca, which analyzes elections. “It’s basically saying ‘we can’t win any other way.’ ”

Although the Conservati­ves enjoy a two-toone advantage in financing over the opposition parties, money doesn’t always buy love.

The governing Alberta Conservati­ves had a five-fold advantage in fundraisin­g this year, but Jim Prentice, who was premier, still lost to the NDP, said Prof. Nelson Wiseman, who teaches politics at the University of Toronto. “If there’s a strong wind for change it doesn’t much matter,” he said.

The long campaign — it’s more than twice the usual five weeks — also leaves more time for a “wild card” to influence the campaign.

In 2006, in the middle of an extended 55-day federal campaign that straddled the Christmas holiday, the RCMP unexpected­ly revealed it had launched a criminal investigat­ion into the Liberal government’s policy decision on income trusts.

Paul Martin’s Liberals were subsequent­ly defeated by Harper’s Conservati­ves.

“Things can often turn on a dime,” Wiseman said.

In a similar vein, a longer campaign leaves more time for gaffes, by either the leaders or candidates, that can be exploited by rivals.

But that is an equal risk for all parties, with Harper having the upper hand because of his experience, Wieder said, noting that Trudeau has been prone to slips.

“It’s blatantly unfair. It’s basically saying ‘we can’t win any other way.’ ”

ALICE FUNKE ELECTION ANALYST, ON CALLING AN EARLY CAMPAIGN START “If there’s a strong wind for change it doesn’t much matter.”

NELSON WISEMAN PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO

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