Can Trudeau alter federal campaign narrative?

One of the simple truths about politics is that campaigns really do matter.

In any election, there is plenty of time for party leaders to make mistakes, to say stupid things, to be caught in embarrassing photos, for sudden surprises that no one anticipated and for voters to change their minds.

As every campaign veteran knows all too well, a week can be a lifetime in politics — and Canadians could face an 11-week campaign. Prime Minister Stephen Harper is expected to ask for the dissolution of Parliament Sunday, which would trigger an election.

That’s why senior Liberal campaign organizers still believe there’s a fair chance — yes, they really do believe it — that Justin Trudeau can change the current campaign narrative that has him as a mistake-prone lightweight from a privileged background who is out of touch with average Canadians.

By contrast, the current narrative about NDP Leader Tom Mulcair is that he’s on a roll and could become our next prime minister.

The narrative about Harper is that most voters want to see him gone, but that his base support is so solid that the Tories could slip up the middle as the NDP and Liberals split the anti-Harper vote.

What political leaders often fail to do in the months before a campaign is officially called is to convey a “narrative” that tells voters why they are running and to provide that “narrative” for journalists to use when they report about them.

In that vacuum, the narrative that can emerge about a candidate — good or bad — comes from informal “group-think” among full-time political reporters and commentators, who frequently fall into “pack journalism” coverage of elections. Anyone who reports something that contradicts that prevailing narrative is often dismissed or ignored by their editors and colleagues.

Thus, it usually takes an extraordinary event during the campaign for the narrative about a candidate to change.

For Trudeau, the problem is there will be few chances to change the prevailing narrative. Liberal strategists contacted in the last few days concede the only real opportunity will be in the handful of nationally televised debates.

Since last fall, the Liberals have fallen from first place to third in the polls, while the NDP has surged into first place in most polls.

Liberal supporters take heart, though, from an Ipsos poll conducted for Global News suggesting the election is “still anyone’s game” because 18 per cent of Canadians remain undecided.

Lately, Trudeau has suffered from more bad than good weeks.

In recent days, he has watched as popular former MP Olivia Chow announced she would run against Liberal Adam Vaughan in the new Toronto riding of Spadina—Fort York.

He also took a beating in the media when Eve Adams, the controversial former Tory MP who Trudeau welcomed with open arms to the Liberal team, lost the party nomination race in the Eglinton—Lawrence riding.

In addition, one senior Ontario Liberal organizer admited the non-stop assault of anti-Trudeau television and radio ads by the Tories “has knocked Justin down, has caused him trouble” in his effort to change the existing narrative.

Still, senior Liberals remain optimistic that the narrative can improve. They point to the fact that 1,900 people showed up and cast ballots in the Eglinton—Lawrence nomination contest, indicating the Liberals are a serious force in the riding, which is held by Finance Minister Joe Oliver.

They also claim internal polling shows the Liberals are leading in downtown Toronto, are ahead in places like Peterborough, tied in Belleville with the Tories, close in Oshawa and in ridings such as Simcoe North.

In reality, though, it all comes down to the debates for Trudeau at this stage.

The Liberal leader must perform better than anyone expects, which might not be as hard as many people think because the Tories have hammered him for so long in their negative ads about being a lightweight that he could easily surprise.

“The Tories have done a good job of getting voters to think he will be a goof,” the Ontario strategist said. “The debates are the ideal opportunity to dispel that impression.”

Liberal managers are also hoping the NDP surge may soon begin to ebb, especially if Harper switches his attack ads to Mulcair and hammers him as being “soft” on Quebec independence and as a leader who would raise taxes and says one thing in one part of Canada and another elsewhere.

Liberals call these points “ticking time bombs” for Mulcair. If one of them explodes, then the narrative about the NDP leader could turn negative fast.

If that happens, the narrative about Trudeau could also swing violently, making this a campaign that truly does matter.