Will Twitter chatter predict the election result?

Survey suggests candidates’ tweets could make difference

OTTAWA— The No. 1 election issue that Canadians are discussing on Twitter is the same one the major party leaders are talking about: the economy. Data from Twitter Canada show the economy, jobs and the possibility that Canada will slip into recession were the top issues in the first few days after the official campaign began. Coming in second was national security, particularly talk about the controversial anti-terrorism legislation, Bill C-51.

Those happen to be the issues the leaders, particularly Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, have used to frame the so-called ballot box questions for the campaign: who is best suited to manage a troubled economy and what path to follow on national security.

But these are early days and the online chatter could change quickly.

It did in the Alberta election when early talk of the economy and oilsands gave way to chatter about education and health care that coincided with a rise in NDP fortunes.

“As you watch what those conversations are on Twitter throughout the entire election cycle, you’re really going to see which parties are starting to gain traction with their messaging based on what people are starting to talk about on Twitter,” said Steve Ladurantaye, Twitter Canada’s head of government partnerships.

Twitter analyzed all the tweets sent during the first four days of the official campaign period and were tagged with the “elxn42” hashtag. It doesn’t take into account tweets that weren’t tagged, but discussed leaders, candidates, parties and issues.

The results may be a sign that candidates and parties think there are votes to be had from millions of Twitter users. The company says about 37 per cent of Canadians are on Twitter. That would mean about 13 million users.

An online survey by Research Now of 1,000 Canadians, split evenly between users of Twitter and users of other social media platforms, suggested that about three-fifths of those polled had not made up their mind about their vote.

The survey conducted for Twitter Canada was sent to users who had registered with Research Now and the results weighted to reflect the demographic composition of Twitter users and the general population. It does not contain a margin of error because it was not a random sample.

Ladurantaye said the results suggest the right tweets could make a difference in a tight race.

“There are votes to be had and you get those votes by being authentic and being yourself, and not just being on script all the time,” he said.