Your rotation, for starters
The clear result of manager John Gibbons’ pre-game session with the media on Thursday is, that during the upcoming trip to face the Yankees in the Bronx, he and pitching coach Pete Walker will sit down and map out the remainder of the regular season and decide on how the Blue Jays starting rotation will shake out.
“We’re kind of discussing that right now,” Gibbons said. “(David) Price is throwing Saturday. We really want to hold him, if we can keep (the rotation) in line so he pitches that following Friday (Aug. 14) against the Yanks, here.
“So we’ll just roll it and that’ll be an extra day for him and we just have to figure out how we want to do it after that with those two off-days (before and after a Philadelphia series the following week) and even after that. Three off days in a week? That’s where it gets, I don’t know if it’s tricky, but complicated. We’re not there yet.”
Here are the complicating factors that will enter into the decision-making process for Gibbons and Walker. There are 52 games remaining. You want to maximize the important starts for Price, the clear ace. You will want to minimize the starts, especially the road starts, for Drew Hutchison, the clear fifth man of the group. You will want to keep in mind knuckleballer R.A. Dickey’s ability to make a start on short rest, if necessary. You want to set up for a possible wildcard game.
There are seven Jays off-days over the next 49 days on the calendar, followed by 10 games in a row down the stretch to end the season — three at home against the Rays, then on the road for four at Baltimore and three at Tampa Bay. A plethora of permutations and combinations — but we’re all over it. As a service to the streaking Jays, here is their answer.
David Price (1-0, 1.13 ERA)
With 11 assignments remaining, here are potential dates for Price starts: Aug. 8-14-21-26-31; Sept. 6-11-16-21-26; Oct. 1.
That would give him one extra day of rest twice and two extra days between starts one time. The list of Price opponents includes the Yankees four times, with a total of seven starts against the AL East. The left-hander is 10-7, 4.41 against New York and 28-19 vs. the four AL East opponents.
In addition to the Yankees, he would face Baltimore twice, the Rays, Angels, Indians, Rangers and Braves.
You want to maximize the important starts for Price, the clear ace. You want to keep in mind knuckleballer R.A. Dickey’s ability to make a start on short rest.
With his last start slated on Oct. 1 in Baltimore, he would be set up to pitch a wild-card showdown against whoever qualifies or else the first game of the Division Series, should they make it.
R.A. Dickey (6-10, 4.06 ERA)
With 12 assignments remaining, here are the potential dates for Dickey starts: Aug. 7-13-19-25-30; Sept. 5-10-15-20-25-30; Oct. 4.
That would give him an extra day of rest four times and for the final Sunday of the season in Tampa, if the game meant anything in the standings, he might be asked to pitch on his fourth day, as he did with seven shutout innings against the Royals on Aug. 2. If it means nothing, he sits.
Among AL East opponents, Dickey would face the Yankees, Orioles and Rays twice and Boston once. His other opponents include the A’s Phillies, Rangers, Tigers and Braves. Dickey has been the Jays best starter over his past five outings, averaging 7 1/3 innings, with a 3-1, record and a 1.24 ERA.
Mark Buehrle (12-5, 3.34 ERA)
With 11 assignments remaining, here are potential dates for Buehrle starts: Aug. 12-18-23-28; Sept. 2-8-1318-23-28; Oct. 3.
Buehrle will only need to average fewer than five innings per start to reach 200 for the 15th consecutive season. He would receive an extra day between starts twice and would face AL East opponents six times — the Yankees and Red Sox twice, the O’s and the Rays. His other five games would be vs. the A’s, Phils, Angels, Tigers and Indians.
Marco Estrada (9-6, 3.40 ERA)
With 11 assignments remaining, here are the potential dates for Estrada starts: Aug. 9-15-22-27; Sept. 1-7-12-17-22-27; Oct. 2.
Estrada has been the surprise of the Jays rotation, cutting his home run total down and going deep into ball games, some of those with dominating results. One of the teams he excels against is the Rays and he would face them in his final two starts. He might start against the Yankees four times. Estrada would pitch on his sixth day twice and his seventh day once. It’s doable.
Drew Hutchison (10-2, 5.42 ERA)
The distribution of remaining Blue Jays starts as outlined above would leave Hutchison with just seven starts the rest of the way — two of them on the road, at Boston on Sept. 9 and at Baltimore on Sept. 29. Any other suggestion of going with just four starters is unrealistic, but you can use the scheduled off-days to manage Hutchison’s workload.
Hutchison, in 11 road starts, is 2-1, with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.000 WHIP. Of the 27 pitchers with 10-plus wins this year, only Hutchison, Bartolo Colon and Alfredo Simon have negative WARs. Although the Jays are 15-7 in his 22 starts, there is huge cause for concern.