TONY BURMAN ON CANADA
It’s not just the economy at stake in the federal election; Canada’s place in the world is, too,
Who will win Canada’s federal election on Oct. 19? I don’t have a clue yet. Do you? But I will make a prediction about it, without hesitation.
In terms of determining Canada’s place in the world, this election for Canadians will be the most important in a generation.
As historians remind us, issues of foreign policy and national security rarely matter much in Canadian elections. Overwhelmingly, elections in Canada turn on domestic issues, usually economic.
Many will remember the “great free trade debate” of 1988 pitting Brian Mulroney against John Turner. In the hundred years prior to that, there were only a handful of elections involving critical debates about world issues — such as nuclear arms, Canada’s war record, the divisive issue of conscription and, in 1911, when then-prime minister Wilfrid Laurier went down to defeat over his support for free trade with the United States.
But be prepared to add the election of 2015 to this short list.
As important as jobs and the economy will always be for voters, including this year, there is every indication that this time the debate over Canada’s role in the world will also be pivotal.
Since its first election in 2006, the Conservative government of Stephen Harper has engineered the most radical changes in Canadian foreign policy in more than 50 years.
It has turned its back on initiatives to combat climate change, undermined its relationship with multilateral bodies and, instead, has embraced a bizarre quest for Canada to become a “warrior nation.”
But these changes have rarely been raised as part of an election campaign. They have often happened by government decree, with little public debate or public notice — in the dead of night, I would argue, with many Canadians, except for Harper’s narrow, ideological and loyal base, seemingly asleep at the switch. That is about to end.
In mid-September, as Canadians enter the final weeks of the campaign, a spotlight will go on and all sorts of things will start to happen on the world stage that may affect how Canadians vote.
The passions and pressures of global politics will be brought home, and it will be a dramatic reminder that in this shrinking, globalized world, the line that used to separate domestic and international politics is truly vanishing.
The first event will be a decision on the controversial nuclear agreement with Iran. By mid-September, the Republican-dominated U.S. Congress will likely vote to oppose the agreement. But President Barack Obama is expected to be able to veto it.
As a result, the question for Canada — which has been militantly opposed to Iran — will be whether it will modify its approach as Iran gradually returns to international respectability.
The second event will be a special session of the United Nations General Assembly marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the UN, a body that Harper has consistently derided.
On Sept. 28, there will be a remarkable lineup of presidential speakers appearing within a few hours of each other: Obama, Vladimir Putin of Russia, Hassan Rouhani of Iran, Xi Jinping of China and François Hollande of France.
The summit is intended to set new global goals to tackle poverty and sustainable development. On these issues, Canada currently is irrelevant to the process.
The third event will occur a few months later in Paris in December. Governments of more than 190 nations will meet to try to work out a historic new global agreement on climate change.
This would be a successor to the so-called Kyoto Protocol, which the Harper government opposed.
As it stands now, Canada will be going to the Paris conference with the weakest pledges regarding the environment of any major industrial country.
These upcoming events ensure that the next Canadian government will be required to make key decisions on major foreign policy issues right away.
That makes this election so important in terms of Canada’s future place in the world.
It will determine not only for Canadians but also for the world at large whether the past 10 years of Canadian foreign policy under Harper will be a blueprint for the future, or simply a very dark but brief period that is coming to an end.