City’s violent summer might be part of a cycle
Spike in crime happens every four years, police say
Two shooting deaths. A man clinging to life from gunshot wounds. Two more with serious injuries. All within just over 48 hours.
The spate of shootings made the past week an especially violent one in Toronto, and they typify a surge in gun violence across the city this year.
The four major shootings, which occurred between Wednesday morning and early Friday, are the latest incidents in a summer punctuated by the high-profile quintuple shooting at Muzik nightclub, the death of14-year-old Lecent Ross from a single gunshot, a fatal shooting that left two men dead inside a west-end condo, and more.
As of Monday, there had been163 shootings in the city, nearly the exact number as this time in 2012, the last time the city experienced a significant surge in gun crime. By comparison, as of Aug. 24, 2014, there had been 118 shootings, 38 per cent fewer than this year.
The number of victims is also up by about 82 per cent from this time last year, though changes to the data entry system in 2014 mean some victim and injury information “is unknown or undetermined,” according to police. The number of shootings involving injury or death has increased 62 per cent.
Asked on Friday about the spike in gun violence, Mayor John Tory reassured Torontonians that the city is still “very safe” and he is confident police are “on top of this.”
“I’m satisfied that police are addressing every possible resource to this to make sure that people are apprehended who are engaged in this kind of violent activity, and that is going to make a difference on what we’ve seen happening over the last couple of weeks.
“These things often go in cycles,” Tory added. Indeed, criminologists warn against reading too much into crime statistics alone, particularly when they are measuring relatively short periods of time. Last summer, for instance, saw a record low in terms of violent crime — including a 30-percent drop in homicides as of Aug. 31 — right before a surge of homicides made the following month the deadliest September since 1990.
By the end of the year, the two ex- tremes equalled out to an average year: there were a total of 57 homicides, smack in the middle of the city’s five-year trend.
Taking the long view, however, Toronto police have detected a pattern: gun crime seems to surge about every four years.
One theory is that this could be explained by repeat offenders returning to the community after release from prison.
“It might be related to the cycle of apprehension, incarceration and release,” Deputy Police Chief Mike Federico said in an interview Friday.
“The typical long-term federal sentence is around four to six years. Of course, with earned remission, people can get out in two to three years. It’s a theory that we’re exploring.”
Another theory police keep in mind is the fact that more crime occurs during the summer months. Simply put, warmer weather means more people out on the street, so “we do brace for seasonal variations,” Federico says.
Weighing such theories forms part of the approach Toronto police are employing to curb gun crime. It’s a mix of conventional and new approaches, Federico said.
“We are trying to be as sophisticated and insightful, logical and thoughtful as we can be and respond accordingly, so it’s an intelligence-led approach.”
That includes increasing the presence of officers in areas where the shootings typically occur. Right now, that’s in the city’s northwest corner and the downtown core.
Then, police watch for the “displacement” effect, meaning crime is diverted away from areas that are being more highly policed: When police focus on one area, does violence go elsewhere?
Officers sent into a community experiencing a surge in crime are also expected to check in on known offenders to ensure they fulfil their release conditions, part of what’s called the bail compliance program.
But Federico says police are also experimenting with initiatives aimed at reducing or even preventing crime by creating partnerships with community groups, non-government agencies and faith leaders.
The system is modelled on the “hub program,” a policing model first adopted in Scotland, which brings together social service workers, educators and police to discuss individuals who may be at risk of committing crime. The group then creates an intervention strategy unique to the individual.
Asimilar initiative is now in place in the city’s northwest corner.
“These are attempts to get at the underlying social conditions (and) interrupt the cycle,” Federico said. With files from Betsy Powell