Canadians split on how to solve refugee crisis

24% believe Conservatives have best Syria strategy, but poll reveals deep divide

A new Forum Research poll shows 24 per cent of Canadians think the federal Conservatives have the best plan for handling the Syrian refugee crisis.

The poll also has the NDP maintaining a strong lead in public support and on track to form a minority government in the Oct. 19 federal election.

Of those responding to the Sept. 9-10 poll, 19 per cent favoured the Liberal plan for addressing the crisis, and 18 per cent supported the NDP’s approach. Sixteen per cent of respondents said none of the parties has the best plan, while 23 per cent said they don’t know which one does.

Even though the Conservatives’ plan for handling the Syrian refugee issue drew more support than any other parties, a majority of respondents were either not in sync with Stephen Harper or didn’t know who had the best plan.

This may have an effect on the “swing voters’’ the Conservatives will need to win re-election, said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

And Canadians appear to be leaning toward other options to solving the crisis than the bombing of ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq advocated by Harper.

While 19 per cent of respondents to the Sept. 9-10 poll agreed that bombing is the best approach to solve the refugee problem, 62 per cent chose one of the following alternatives: relaxing refugee rules, hiring more visa processing staff, sending humanitarian aid to refugee camps, airlifting refugees out, or working toward a negotiated settlement to the conflict in Syria.

Nearly 20 per cent said “something else’’ should be done, or said they don’t know.

“I don’t think the public is supportive of what the Tories have done with respect to the refugees,” said Bozinoff, adding this probably means that at this point in time the Conservatives aren’t going to be able to at- tract the swing voters they need to return to office Oct. 19.

“(The Conservatives’) reaction to the refugees is a reflection of their base. They’re always thinking of their base, but their base isn’t going to get them re-elected . . . they have to move a bit to the centre and this refugee issue is going to make it difficult for them to keep moving toward the centre,” Bozinoff said.

“They need to capture those centre-right voters.”

A majority of respondents — 52 per cent — think Canada can do more for Syrian refugees, the Forum poll found.

The Conservatives have promised to bring in 10,000 Syrians by the end of 2017. But the new Forum poll found that while 30 per cent of survey respondents support that 10,000 total, 41 per cent believe a higher amount — up to 100,000, is doable. The NDP has pledged to spend $74 million in a bid to bring 10,000 Syrian refugees to Canada by the end of this year, while the Liberals have promised immediate steps to bring in 25,000 government-sponsored Syrian refugees by next January.

In P.E.I. on Thursday, Harper suggested his government will soon announce measures to expedite resettlement of the refugees.

When asked about party support in the election race, the poll found 36 per cent of respondents favour the NDP — the same level as last week’s survey.

The Liberals dipped slightly to 29 per cent from 32 per cent last week, while the Conservatives saw a four-point bump over the same period and now sit at 28 per cent — a statistical tie with the Liberals when the poll’s margin of error is factored in.

The Green and Bloc Québécois are at 3 per cent each, while 1 per cent of respondents said they plan to vote for “other.’’

The results, projected on a 338-seat House of Commons, would see the NDP capture a minority government with 139 seats. The Conservatives would win 113 seats, the Liberals 85, and the Greens one.

In Ontario, the NDP is slightly ahead at 34 per cent support, while the Conservatives and Liberals each have 31 per cent.

The Forum results are fairly consistent with other recent polls, including one Monday by Nanos for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, which found the NDP leading at 33 per cent, the Liberals in second at 31 per cent and the Tories down to 26 per cent.

The Nanos results were based on a three-day rolling average of 1,200 voters, between Sept. 4 and 6. That margin of error was plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error for the latest Forum poll of 1,308 Canadian adults is plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In response to the recent polls Harper acknowledged for the first time earlier this week that the rival NDP and Liberals have made headway and pose a real threat to his bid for re-election.

A majority of respondents — 52 per cent — think Canada can do more for Syrian refugees, the Forum poll found