HOUSE (HOLD) POOR
StatsCan finds debt-to-disposable-income ratio has hit record high as interest-rate cuts accelerate borrowing,
Akey indicator of household debt hit arecord high in the second quarter of 2015, as lower mortgage rates drove increased borrowing, Statistics Canada figures show.
The ratio of debt to disposable income reached 164.6 per cent as debt loads grew faster than incomes, the federal agency noted in its quarterly National Balance Sheet Accounts.
That means for every $1 of after-tax income Canadians earned, they owed nearly $1.65 in credit market debt, which includes mortgages, credit cards and other kinds of consumer loans.
The ratio was 163 per cent in the previous three-month period, Statistics Canada said.
The increase “came as no surprise,” TD Bank economist Jonathan Bendiner wrote in a commentary.
Rising mortgage debt drove most of the growth as interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada earlier in the year spurred borrowing, especially in the hot housing markets in British Columbia and Ontario, Bendiner noted.
The report comes two days after the Bank of Canada held its trendsetting overnight interest rate at 0.5 per cent, citing strength in exports and consumer spending.
In the past, Bank governor Stephen Poloz has raised concerns about growing household debt loads as a risk to future economic stability.
But that concern was pushed onto the back burner as plunging oil prices sent the Canadian economy into a mild recession in the first half of the year.
While Canadians are generally managing to carry their debt loads at current interest rates, the concern is that once interest rates rise to more typical levels some households will be unable to manage higher monthly payments.
A credit counselling agency said Friday’s report should be taken as a sign that consumers need to exercise more caution.
“Household debt levels are continuing their upward trend, and this puts Canadian consumers in a precarious situation,” said Scott Hannah, the president and chief executive officer of the Credit Counselling Society, a non-profit agency in British Columbia.
“If they’re struggling to manage their increasing debt obligations now, a sudden change in external factors — like a rise in interest rates or the loss of a job — will leave many Canadians in greater financial difficulty.”
For now, there’s little evidence Canadians are struggling to carry their loans, economists said, referring to the ratio of debt service to disposable income cited in the StatsCan report.
The ratio inched up 0.2 percentage points to 14.1 per cent, slightly above the 10-year historic average, the report said.
“There’s little need to fret about households’ ability to carry all that debt,” Benjamin Reitzes, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, observed in a commentary.
Overall, Canadian households held $1.874 trillion in credit market debt at the end of the quarter, Statistics Canada said.
That’s up 1.8 per cent from the previous quarter, rising faster than the 0.7 per cent pace seen in the first three months of the year.
Household net worth also grew in the second quarter, though not as fast as debt, rising 0.9 per cent between March and June. The value of real estate rose by 1.8 per cent while financial assets, such as stocks, edged down 0.1 per cent.
On a per-capita basis, household net worth increased to $243,800.