Will Turnbull aim for Aussie consensus?
After Tony Abbott’s ouster as PM, his successor may blur lines between left and right
He’s fiscally conservative and socially progressive. He puts science first. He’s serious about climate change. And as of Tuesday, he’s Australia’s prime minister.
But as the fifth premier in eight years, is Malcolm Turnbull likely to survive volatile Aussie politics long enough to make a real difference?
That’s the looming question after Monday’s dramatic power shift, which saw the embattled incumbent Tony Abbott unseated in a late-night ballot for the Liberal party leadership by a decisive vote of 54-44.
In remarks following the victory, Turnbull outlined an economic vision for Australia “that is agile, that is innovative, that is creative” and promised he would lead a “thoroughly Liberal government” en route.
Just as Australia’s winter is North America’s summer, Australia’s Liberals occupy conservative terrain, well to the right of the Labour opposition.
But Turnbull, a former minister of communications, arrives with a history that suggests he may try to blur those lines in pursuit of a new Australia consensus.
Here are some important clues as to where this may go. Centrist A former merchant banker, wealthy digital entrepreneur and outspoken “moderate,” Turnbull might just be the man to take the dog whistle out of Australian politics. His ascension to power signals a centrist shift for the country’s embattled conservative Liberal-National coalition — the government now will be led by a man intent upon changing with the times on global issues, from climate change to same-sex marriage to the international migration/asylum/refugee crisis. Second chance Or he could crash and burn, as he did six years ago, when Turnbull was “poleaxed” out of his job as opposi- tion leader by conservative climateskeptics within his own party after he was deemed far too willing to go along with the rival Labour government’s emissions trading scheme to reduce greenhouse gases. A chastened Turnbull, after years of rebuilding bridges, now has his second chance. But the clock is ticking. Polls suggest the government is slated for defeat in next year’s election. Free market supporter Turnbull is a social moderate — but also a full-throated free market libertarian — thus Aussie leftists aren’t getting too carried away with expectations of change. Even if he fends off his party’s right-wing base and turns a page on climate policy (he has called for ambitious emissions cuts ahead of upcoming global climate talks in Paris) Turnbull is expected to stay the course with conservative spending, economic and investment policies. Whatever else comes, Turnbull’s arrival ensures a new tone. Not Tony Abbott Turnbull’s arrival also means an end to the Perpetual Gaffe Machine that was his predecessor, Abbott, whose tenure gave the political world some of the most memorable accidental laugh lines this side of George W. Bush. Abbot’s best/worst mis-hits include a reference to “the suppository of all wisdom” during a 2013 speech to party supporters. More disturbingly, Abbott showed a hyperpartisan tendency to compare political rivals to Nazis, including a description of Labour leader Bill Shorten as “the Dr. Goebbels of economy policy.” Delicate work ahead Assuming he can tame his own fractious party and defuse any further rebellion, recent history suggests Turnbull still has his work cut out for him winning over the country. Turnbull’s turn at the top caps an era of astonishing instability in Australian politics. The ousting of Abbott, whose political doom was sealed by public disapproval ratings of 63 per cent, may end the ruling party’s slide. But Turnbull will need to navigate both delicately and quickly to regain the country’s trust.