What moves the masses to flee now

A complicated mix of war, weather and logistical considerations lies behind the extraordinary influx of refugees and migrants into Europe this summer.

The war in Syria

Syria’s war has ground on for four years without an end in sight. Syrians represent half of this year’s unprecedented surge, which is in turn double the number of the year before. An upsurge in conflicts worldwide has fuelled record levels of displacement in recent years. People also are fleeing conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Somalia and Niger.

An easier route

Until recently, the sea crossing from Libya to Italy had been the preferred route for those fleeing to Europe. A shorter and less dangerous sea route exists from Turkey to Greece. But the journey from Greece through the Balkans to northern Europe was far more complicated than the one leading through Italy. After Macedonia lifted harsh measures aimed at preventing refugees from entering the country in June, the route through the Balkans opened up.

The price dropped

The crossing to Greece from Turkey takes less than an hour and as little as 20 minutes. Not only does this make the sea crossing cheaper, but refugees no longer need to pay smugglers to sneak them through the borders of the Balkan countries. That means more people can afford to take the journey now.

The weather

It is normal for illegal migration into Europe to peak during summer. One reason there is a big scramble now is that a lot of people are trying to make the journey before bad weather sets in. In the past week there have been more drownings due to capsized boats on the Greece-Turkey route than in the whole of the rest of the year: 56 this week compared to 55 through the end of last week.

Germany’s welcome

Huge numbers were already on the march when German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that Germany would offer temporary residency to all refugees arriving there. Iraqis have begun to join the exodus in bigger numbers, and many of those arriving recently in Turkey to make the trip say they were encouraged by the TV footage of Germans welcoming refugees.

Syrian conscription

Short of manpower to fight the rebellion against his rule, Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government has embarked since late last year on a drive to enlist reservists to serve in the army. Many of the Syrians fleeing to Europe come from governmentheld areas and say they were escaping forced conscription.