Blair in tight race, Oliver trails, polls say

Former Toronto police chief Bill Blair is battling it out in Scarborough in a race that’s too close to call, while high-profile Conservative candidate Joe Oliver is trailing in the hotly contested Eglinton-Lawrence riding, according to new public opinion polls by Forum Research.

Forum results show Blair, who had the support of as much as 42 per cent of residents in Scarborough Southwest when first nominated as a Liberal candidate in the spring, has since dropped to 35 per cent support — a statistical tie with NDP candidate Dan Harris, (32 per cent) the next leading contender in the riding.

Conservative Roshnan Nallarat-nam enjoys 27 per cent support, the Greens 5 per cent support.

Meanwhile, Conservative Joe Oliver (38 per cent) is trailing Liberal candidate Marco Mendicino (44 per cent) in Eglinton-Lawrence. The NDP have 17 per cent support, and the Greens 2 per cent. Oliver is the Conservative finance minister.

Respondents in the Forum polls were asked which candidate/party they support or are leaning toward.

The sample size for the Scarborough poll, conducted Sept. 19 and 20, is 608 respondents, while the Eglinton-Lawrence survey, done Sept. 21, surveyed 634 respondents.

In a separate Forum poll on the race in Etobicoke Centre, Conservative Ted Opitz (42 per cent support) is deadlocked with Liberal candidate Borys Wrzesnewskyj (43 per cent).

Eleven per cent support or are leaning toward the NDP candidate in the riding, while 3 per cent of voters favour the Greens, and 1 per cent said “other.” This poll was conducted Sept. 10 and 11, with 885 respondents.

Yet another Forum survey has Liberal James Maloney out in front in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, with 41 per cent of voters favouring him. Conservative Bernard Trottier is in second place at 33 per cent. There was 22 per cent support for the NDP candidate Phil Trotter, and 4 per cent for the Greens, Forum found. This poll was conducted on Sept. 17 with a sample size of 835 adult voters.

Forum’s two Etobicoke polls have a margin or error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Due to the smaller sample sizes, the Scarborough and Eglinton-Lawrence polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Forum’s polls are weighted statistically by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data. The weighting formula has been shared with the Star and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.