Niqab issue bolsters Tory support: pollster

Conservatives would win a majority if election were held now, recent survey finds

With little over two weeks left before Canadians vote, the Conservatives have jumped out to a “clear lead” in public support, according to new results from polling firm Forum Research.

The survey of1,499 Canadian voters has Conservative Leader Stephen Harper’s party ahead with 34 per cent support, compared to 28 per cent for the NDP and 27 per cent support for the Liberals.

The Greens and Bloc Québécois each drew 5 per cent support, and 1 per cent of respondents said they support “other.”

Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff attributed the latest bump in Tory fortunes to the party scoring points amid the recent flare-up in the controversy over the niqab, the Muslim face veil.

Two-thirds (64 per cent) of Canadian voters are opposed to having fully veiled women swear the oath of citizenship, while just over a quarter (26) support it, the poll found.

Ten per cent don’t know, according to Forum’s results.

“It appears the Conservatives have scored a palpable hit with their hard line this past week on the niqab,” Bozinoff said in a statement.

The latest poll results from Forum show an increase in support for the Conservatives from last week’s survey, where the party was at 31 per cent support. The Liberals saw a four percentage point drop in support from 31 per cent last week, and the NDP remained stable at 28 per cent support over the same period.

In an interview Wednesday, NDP campaign adviser Brad Lavigne said the “substantial” decline in Liberal support since last week shows that party is “bleeding” support to the Conservatives, while the New Democrats are remaining stable.

The Liberal campaign did not provide a comment for this story.

Conservative campaign spokesman Stephen Lecce said in an emailed statement that “Canadians know that this election presents a serious choice between experience and dangerous risk. A choice between our Conservative low-tax, balanced budget plan, and the Liberals’ dangerous approach that will raise taxes on all workers, cancel benefits to families and (plunge) our country into permanent deficits.”

Though the poll’s findings are just a snapshot in time, if the same results occurred the night of the Oct.19 election, the Conservatives would win a minority — 151 seats in the 338-seat House of Commons. The NDP would form the opposition again with 105 seats, the Liberals would seize 76 seats, the Bloc six seats and the Greens one.

Respondents to the Forum poll were asked which of the federal parties they’re decided on, or leaning toward.

Bozinoff said the niqab issue “resonates clearly in Quebec” — 79 per cent in that province oppose the niqab during citizenship oaths — and also appeals to the Conservative base, whose characteristics include being older, male and lower to middle income.

According to the Forum poll, 56 per cent of respondents agree the niqab oppresses women, 29 per cent disagree and 15 per cent don’t know.

Forty-two per cent of respondents said they have positive feelings toward Muslim people, 39 per cent said neither positive nor negative, 18 per cent said negative and 1 per cent said “don’t know.”

Earlier this month, the Federal Court of Appeal ruled the Conservative government’s policy banning the wearing of the niqab during citizenship oath ceremony is unlawful.

The Conservatives are promising that if re-elected they’ll bring forward a law banning the face covering during the oath within 100 days, and plan to seek leave to appeal the Federal Court of Appeal ruling to the Supreme Court.

During the leaders debate in French last week, Harper expressed his support for the niqab ban, while Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau voiced opposition to the ban. NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair said that women should have a right to wear a veil at citizenship ceremonies, but must remove it when they have to identify themselves.

The Forum poll was conducted between Sept. 28 and 29 and is considered accurate plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The poll also shows the NDP have dropped sharply from their high of 40 per cent voter support on Aug. 23 to Aug. 24, while the Conservatives have climbed steadily from the 23 per cent support they had on that date. During that period support for the Liberals has dropped off 3 per cent from 30 per cent.

Bozinoff believes a lot of the NDP support in late August was from progressive voters who “parked” their support with the party, but who, according to Bozinoff, drifted over to the Liberals. Forum’s poll is weighted statistically by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data.

The weighting formula has been shared with the Star and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.