Iran makes diplomatic leap with Syria talks
Once-shunned regime in a battle for influence over Sunni Saudi Arabia and Gulf states
Whether a welcome guest or spectre at a diplomatic feast, Iran will be at the table as talks on a peace settlement for Syria continue Friday in Vienna.
After years of isolation, the once-shunned clerical regime has made a great leap from the shadows to join negotiations along with adversaries America and Saudi Arabia. It’s a sign that its gradual progress to rehabilitation, which began with a nuclear deal this summer, is gaining momentum.
“What the U.S. announced publicly has been in the works for a long time,” said Middle East expert Kamran Bokhari, who teaches national security at University of Ottawa. “There were secret back-channel negotiations before the nuclear deal was done.”
“Iran has spun this to look like they made a big concession to join the talks,” said Ariane Tabatabai, a visiting assistant professor at Georgetown University.
“But they actually wanted this for some time. They just weren’t invited until now.”
The looming, unseen presence at the talks is President Bashar Assad, whom the U.S. wants to remove from power without handing Syria to jihadist rebels such as Islamic State .
For Iran, which publicly insists that Assad must stay, the question is how far it can compromise over a partner in a lengthy marriage of political convenience that has cost it money as well as lives and whose departure could bring it heavy losses in the region.
The dilemma is deepened by Iran’s strategic and sectarian struggle with Sunni Saudi Arabia, which considers the Shiite regime a rival for the leadership of the Islamic world.
Assad, who belongs to the Shialinked Alawite minority, controls less than half of mainly Sunni Syria, backed by Russian air strikes and Iranian ground forces. And it is uncertain how much territory he could rule, even if he stayed in place. If he were pushed from power, Iran would want a friendly regime to take his place.
“I don’t think Iran is going to talk about Syria without Assad at this point,” says Geneive Abdo, a nonresident fellow of the Brookings Institution and expert on the SunniShia divide. “It’s about political control and also the Shia-Sunni issue. There have been a lot of discussions in Iran about how valuable Assad is, but the question is what would remain after him.”
However, “the Iranians have a great incentive for compromise,” said Iran analyst Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group. “The Syrian crisis has been more costly for Iran compared with other countries in terms of blood, treasure and reputation (expended) to support Assad. I’d argue that they are looking for a solution.”
Iran might support a transitional government that would set Assad aside. But for the U.S., the risk is that he could once again dig in and a peace deal collapse into renewed conflict. Iran would be a key ally in guaranteeing his removal.
The possibility of rehabilitation on the world stage might be one incentive, in an era when endless national revolution, and isolation, look less appealing.
Although Iranian politicians have boasted in the past that Iran is rising in the region — with its allies dominating the capitals of Lebanon, Iraq and Syria — Tehran is now playing defence, said Vaez. The arrival of jihadists spreading their extreme brand of Sunni Islam has made the landscape shakier throughout the region.
“Iranians are a sophisticated lot,” said Bokhari. “They know that Assad is not salvageable. But if there were an abrupt exit it would lead to eventual collapse. What they care about is preserving the regime. They want any negotiated settlement to keep large parts of the regime intact.”
Whether that would be possible when facing off with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states and Turkey, which want Assad’s regime gone, is harder to predict.
Saudi Arabia, which is suspicious of Iran’s participation as it joins with Russia in a military campaign to keep Assad in power, expressed doubts at a Riyad news conference Wednesday. “If they’re serious, we will know, and if they’re not serious, we will also know and stop wasting time with them,” said Saudi foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir, according to the New York Times.
It is not clear whether the two countries’ officials will actually talk in Vienna, or if they would have “corridor” encounters.
If so, says Tabatabai, “the silver lining may be that we have Iran and Saudi Arabia at the same table discussing regional issues. There may not be a happy ending to this anytime soon. But a constructive conversation could be a beginning.
“If they sit down and meet and then leave the room, the ultimate losers are the people of Syria.”