ISIS eyes ‘dreadful ranks of global terrorism’
Group’s alleged involvement in downing of Russian plane would be ominous, expert says
BEIRUT— At this stage, there is no hard evidence. But reports from the U.S. and Britain suggesting that a bomb planted by the Islamic State group may have caused the Russian plane crash in Egypt are raising the alarm among experts, who say such an act would be a frightening change in tactics by the extremist group.
It would also underscore the failure so far of the U.S.-led coalition to deter the jihadis — despite the recent addition of Russia to the seemingly formidable forces arrayed against them.
Russian and Egyptian officials say any talk about a bomb is premature, and aviation authorities are working on all possible theories as to why the Airbus A321-200 came down Saturday over Egypt’s chaotic Sinai Peninsula, 23 minutes after takeoff.
Still, British Prime Minister David Cameron said Thursday it was “more likely than not” due to an explosive device. If that proves true, and if ISIS was responsible, it would be the Sunni extremist group’s largest act of transnational terrorism by far.
While ISIS has claimed responsibility for deadly attacks that struck tourists in Tunisia and Shiite mosques in oil-rich Sunni Gulf countries — claims that have not been proved — it has refrained from spectacular Al Qaeda-style attacks on airliners.
It has focused instead on seizing and expanding territory it already holds in Syria and Iraq, and establishing branches in other countries such as Egypt and Libya.
While some attacks in the West may have been inspired by ISIS, there has been no clear evidence that any of them was planned or directed by the group itself.
“The Sinai attack would be a first, and would signal that the Islamic State has become both capable of — and interested in — joining the dreadful ranks of global terrorism,” concluded an analysis by the Soufan Group, a private geopolitical risk assessment company.
Given the ISIS militants’ success in creating mayhem in the region — through brutal tactics and ferocious fanaticism — such a metamorphosis would be a major challenge for security services around the world.
Islamic State has claimed responsibility for bringing the Russian plane down in written statements, as well as video and audio messages posted on the Internet this week. It said the attack was in retaliation for Russia’s air campaign in Syria, where Moscow wants to preserve the rule of President Bashar Assad.
The group warned Putin that they would also target him “at home.”
But ISIS has not offered any details to back its claim.
The group may be withholding them either because its claim is false, or because doing so would undermine plans for similar attacks in the future — or because the aura of mystery might deepen its mystique among diehard followers.
A U.S. official briefed on the matter said that intercepted communications played a role in the tentative conclusion that the Islamic State group’s Sinai affiliate planted an explosive device on the plane.
However, the official added that if it was a bomb, intelligence analysts don’t believe ISIS leaders in Syria ordered the operation, but rather that it was planned and executed by the group’s Sinai affiliate, which operates autonomously.
Islamic State’s insistent claims of responsibility suggest it is trying to boost its global credentials.
Aymenn al-Tamimi, an expert on rebel and Islamic extremist groups, said bombing a jetliner becomes a significant “one-up” in the rivalry with Al Qaeda.
“If the Islamic State is capable of conducting attacks like this — particularly against a target now widely reviled (Russia) — this could bolster their appeal in the jihadi world.”
In recent days, ISIS for the first time explicitly threatened Israel, in videos featuring a militant speaking fluent Hebrew. If they make good on this threat, the potential for escalation is huge.