Crash puts Russia and Egypt in political limbo
With diplomatic stability, tourist safety at stake, Cairo and Moscow tread carefully
One plane crash. Two countries. A loss of 224 lives. And a lengthening list of questions for the leaders of Egypt and Russia.
A week after Russia’s Metrojet Flight 9268 broke up over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, personal and diplomatic chaos reigns, with Russian and Western officials admitting that a bomb may have been smuggled on board, and thousands of angry and stranded British and European holidaymakers awaiting flights to return home.
On Friday, theories of the crash’s cause shifted sharply from mechanical fault or pilot error to the possibility of a bomb planted by Islamic militants, as French television channel France 2reported that the black boxes “distinctly show the sound of an explosion during the flight,” according to a Russian investigator who had access to them.
In the most telling indication yet that terrorism may be involved, Russia suspended all flights to Egypt, not just the popular Sinai resort of Sharm el- Sheikh, where some 50,000 of its tourists are also stranded.
A number of international carriers have cancelled flights to the Sinai, where Egypt has been battling militants since a military-led coup ousted Islamist president Mohammed Morsi in 2013.
But the fighting is in the north near the Mediterranean coast, while Sharm el-Sheikh, on the southern tip of the peninsula bordering the Red Sea, has maintained the popularity of an isolated holiday playground.
On Friday, there were chaotic scenes in the airport as British tourists voiced outrage and frustration because rescue plans by several airline companies were abruptly cancelled when the Egyptian authorities suspended them. Egypt said the airport lacked runway and luggage storage capacity to accommodate incoming planes and a massive outflow of passengers.
For Cairo, the crash of the jet, one of many delivering budget-priced flights to Sharm el-Sheikh, is a major blow to an already hard-hit tourist industry, which was only beginning to recover from its plummet in the years since president Hosni Mubarak was deposed in the Arab Spring protests.
The diplomatic fallout will also be serious for Egypt if there is proof that a bomb was smuggled on board the Russian jet because of lax security measures.
On Friday, a retired tourism ministry official, Magdy Salim, told The Associated Press that “airport security procedures in Egypt are almost (all) bad.”
Egypt, however, might benefit from Russian military aid in attacking the Islamic State-linked Sinai rebels, if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to retaliate directly.
But Putin will also face economic and political repercussions in Russia, which is already in a serious economic downturn following a dramatic drop in world oil prices and sanctions to punish his military incursions in Ukraine.
Irina Tyurina of the Russian Union of Tour Operators told Britain’s daily Telegraph that the plane crash could be “a direct path to bankruptcy for many firms.”
Egypt is the biggest single selling destination on the Russian tourism market, she noted, and with up to 50,000 Russian tourists there now, as well as those who have to return early or have bought unusable tickets, the demand for refunds could be ruinous.
For Putin, the political fallout is still unclear. A recent poll by the independent Levada Center found that 41 per cent of respondents fear the military operation will exhaust funds needed to solve social problems, while another 39 per cent fear the death of Russian soldiers in Syria or in terrorist attacks at home.
Russia has experienced numerous large-scale attacks from Caucasus militants as a result of the wars in Chechnya, with the loss of hundreds of lives. Russians may be reluctant to revisit those years of fear and insecurity.
“If suspicions of a bomb are con- cerned, Russians are likely to feel two conflicting emotions,” UCLA professor and Russia expert Daniel Treisman wrote on CNN.com. “(Anger) could motivate a rally behind Putin and a desire to see the terrorists crushed in Syria. But second, perhaps with some delay, doubts are likely to surface about the wisdom of Putin’s Syrian intervention.”
Although some may blame Putin for “provoking” the jihadists, said Russia security expert Mark Galeotti of New York University, “most Russians already feel that the jihadists were the enemies and if anything this strengthens the regime’s propaganda.
“The legitimating narrative is that Russian planes are in Syria because it is better to fight the jihadists there rather than waiting and fighting them inside Russia’s borders.”
If, as some predict, Putin does “double down” in his fight against militants in the Middle East, by widening his participation in the region he would risk a possible quagmire, as well as escalating revenge attacks from Islamic State and its allies.
“In the last two years, his foreign adventures have exacerbated his country’s economic problems and subjected its population to new threats,” said Treisman, who met Putin recently in Sochi.
“No one is sure exactly where he is taking Russia, and those along for the ride are these days hanging on with white knuckles.”