Jays offer Estrada $15.8M for one year,
Club extends qualifying offer to young right-hander as they address rotation
The Blue Jays began dealing with the vacancies in their starting rotation on Friday by extending free-agent right-hander Marco Estrada a oneyear qualifying offer of $15.8 million (U.S.).
The 32-year-old right-hander has a week to accept or decline the offer, which is calculated from the average of Major League Baseball’s 125 highest annual salaries.
The Jays could still sign Estrada to a multi-year deal, but by extending the one-year offer they are at least assured of receiving draft-pick compensation if he signs with another team.
In the three years since the current qualifying offer system has been in place, no player has accepted the one-year deal. But Estrada poses a compelling case to be the first. If accepted, the contract would represent an exponential raise upon the $3.9 million he received last season in his final year of arbitration. He would prefer a multi-year deal to be sure, but if he feels confident in his ability to replicate his performance, he may be inclined to take the one-year payday.
It would be a marginal overpay on the part of the Jays, given that Estrada — after pitching the best season of his career in 2015 — is likely due to receive a three or four-year deal worth around $12 million to $14 million per season.
But it also gives the team added leverage in their negotiations — saddling Estrada with draft-pick compensation depresses his value on the open market — while also ensuring that if Estrada signs with another team, they aren’t left empty handed.
Meanwhile, receiving a qualifying offer has been the kiss of death in recent years for players like Estrada, who are good enough to merit the one-year offers but not among the high-end talents for which teams are prepared to forfeit a first-round draft pick (or a second-round pick if the signing team has a top-10 pick). Pitchers like Ervin Santana and Kyle Lohse have, in recent years, languished in free agency until the 11th hour after rejecting their qualifying offers, watching their respective markets dwindle as teams balked at parting with a top draft pick.
Either way, it was unthinkable a year ago — when Estrada was acquired by the Jays from the Milwaukee Brewers in a trade for Adam Lind — he would even be in this position. An unremarkable swingman coming off a season in which he surrendered the most home runs in the majors, Estrada started the year in Toronto’s bullpen. But he eventually emerged as a quietly reliable arm in the rotation and, in the second half, was one of the league’s top starters. He finished the year with a career-best 3.13 ERA over 181 innings, also a career high. That he performed excellently in three playoff starts, including a pair of pivotal elimination games, only added to his value.
Some of Estrada’s peripheral statistics — such as his low strikeout rate and historically low batting average against on balls in play — suggest he may have overachieved this season and is likely due for some regression.
But with the expected departures of David Price via free agency and Mark Buehrle via retirement, the Jays already have their hands full filling the holes in their rotation.
Friday also marked the end of the exclusive negotiating window teams have with their free agents, so Price — who was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer since he was traded in his final contract year — officially enters the open market on Saturday and can sign with any team.
The Chicago Cubs, home to Price’s former manager, Joe Maddon, are the reported front-runners to land the ace lefty. AROUND THE LEAGUE: The Chicago White Sox extended a $15.8 million qualifying offer to right-hander Jeff Samardzija . . . The Orioles have extended $15.8 million qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, catcher Matt Wieters and lefthander Wei-Yin Chen. Davis will almost certainly garner far more money from the free agent market . . . The Los Angeles Angels decided not to make a qualifying offer to third baseman David Freese and declined outfielder David DeJesus’ $5 million contract option on Friday . . . Second baseman Daniel Murphy has been given a qualifying offer by the Mets.