Trudeau riding the honeymoon wave: poll
Forum survey pegs new PM’s approval rating at 60 per cent
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is getting a lot of love from voters during his political honeymoon, a new poll suggests.
One week after being sworn in, Trudeau is enjoying a 60-per-cent approval rating and almost three-quarters of those surveyed say they are satisfied with the outcome of the Oct. 19 election won by his Liberals.
“He’s off to a good start,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said Tuesday.
“I don’t think the New Democrats (polled) are that disappointed because getting rid of (Conservative prime minister Stephen) Harper was the goal . . . so I think there is relief after that,” Bozinoff said, noting 72 per cent of NDP voters surveyed are “satisfied” with the election outcome.
“The Liberals kind of took the New Democrats’ policies,” he said. “They did the same thing that (Premier Kathleen) Wynne did (last year). They out-New-Democrat (ed) the New Democrats; it’s exactly the same playbook.”
Using interactive voice-response phone calls, Forum surveyed1,256 people across Canada between last Wednesday and Saturday. Results are considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Here’s what the poll found:
74 per cent approve of Trudeau’s gender-balanced cabinet, with 22 per cent disapproving and 4 per cent unsure. “That’s what he said he was going to do and there is a big premium these days on doing what you say you’re going to do,” Bozinoff said.
55 per cent of respondents said they would now vote Liberal — up from the 39.5 per cent who actually did on Oct. 19. Twenty-five per cent would vote Conservative (down from 31.9 per cent on election day),12 per cent would vote New Democrat (down from 19.7 per cent), 4 per cent would vote Bloc Québécois (4.7 per cent), and 3 per cent would vote Green (3.4 per cent).
In terms of which Conservative legislation respondents want the Liberals to repeal or amend first, 27 per cent said Bill C-51, the anti-terror law;18 per cent said Bill C-24, which gives Ottawa the power to revoke Canadian citizenship for terrorists; 11 per cent said Bill C-36, the law banning soliciting for prostitution; and 8 per cent said Bill C-377, which requires unions to disclose salaries and expenses.
With the Liberals promising electoral reform, 40 per cent said they approve of the existing “first-pastthe-post” system, with 34 per cent disapproving and 26 per cent unsure; 52 per cent approve of a proportional representation system, with 23 per cent disapproving and 25 per cent unsure; and 31 per cent approve of a ranked ballot with 38 per cent disapproving and 31 per cent not sure.
Trudeau enjoys a 60 per cent ap- proval rating with 20 per cent disapproving of the job he is doing, while 20 per cent were not sure. Forty-three per cent of respondents said they are “very satisfied” with the election outcome, 29 per cent said “somewhat satisfied,”14 per cent said “not very satisfied,” and 14 per cent said “not at all satisfied.” In terms of party affiliation, 98 per cent of Liberals were satisfied compared with 22 per cent of Tories, 72 per cent of New Democrats, 79 per cent of Greens, and 53 per cent of Bloc backers.
NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair, who is remaining at the helm of his party despite taking the New Democrats from official Opposition to third place, has a 34 per cent approval rating, with 39 per cent disapproving of his performance and 27 per cent unsure.
Former cabinet minister Peter MacKay leads the pack to succeed Harper as full-time Conservative leader with 29 per cent support. Following him is fellow retiree John Baird (14 per cent), current interim leader Rona Ambrose (14 per cent), ex-ministers Jason Kenney (11 per cent), Michelle Rempel (11 per cent), Kellie Leitch (9 per cent), Tony Clement (7 per cent) and Rob Nicholson (6 per cent).
Like most polls, Forum’s survey is weighted statistically by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data. The weighting formula has been shared with the Star and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.