Estrada gets two years from Jays
Changeup specialist came into his own in Toronto rotation
When the Blue Jays acquired Marco Estrada a year ago in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers for Adam Lind, they did not foresee him becoming a pivotal piece in their starting rotation.
How could they? He was an unremarkable swingman in his early 30s, coming off a season in which he surrendered the most home runs in the majors.
“He came in as a guy that wasn’t even in our initial rotation,” interim general manager Tony LaCava admitted Friday. That was even after Marcus Stroman was lost to injury.
But in their first substantial move of the off-season, the Jays signed Estrada on Friday to a two-year deal worth $26 million. It’s the first big payday for the 32-year-old right-hander, who up to this point has made $10 million total over parts of eight big-league seasons, but is coming off a year in which he set career highs in wins, ERA and innings pitched, and proved a stalwart arm for the Jays down the stretch.
“We think that he can maintain that level of performance — maybe not to the level that he did this year — but certainly someone that we can count on going forward, that can help us defend the AL East title,” LaCava said in a conference call with reporters to announce the deal. “We think he can definitely continue with the success that he had this year.”
The agreement comes a week after the Jays extended Estrada a one-year qualifying offer worth $15.8 million that would have ensured the team received a compensatory draft pick if he signed with another team. Extending the offer also gave the Jays leverage in their own negotiations with the noted changeup artist, who faced something of a dilemma as he balanced the lucrative one-year deal against a preference for something longer term.
Despite his strong 2015 season, given his age, previous mediocre history and especially how rejecting the qualifying offer would have forced any team he signed with to forfeit a first-round draft pick, he faced the prospect of an unforgiving open market. But a twoyear deal with an average annual value of $13 million seems a good deal for both sides.
LaCava declined to say how much Estrada would be paid in each year of the deal, but Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported that it was partially backloaded, with Estrada receiving $11.5 million in 2016 and $14.5 million in 2017. That will give the Jays a little extra financial wiggle room for the upcoming year when their payroll will have less flexibility than in 2017.
Although he started the season in the Jays’ bullpen, Estrada quietly emerged as one of the team’s most reliable pitchers, capping his stellar season with a strong playoff performance in which he pitched particularly excellently in a pair of elimination games.
The finesse righty, who boasts one of the best changeups in the majors, is likely due for some regression given that he enjoyed the benefits of a historically low .216 batting average on balls in play in 2015. The stat is a testament to Estrada’s penchant for inducing weak contact, but it also suggests he benefitted from some good luck. Given that it was not only the lowest mark in the majors this year, but the lowest since 1988, it can hardly be considered sustainable.
“Our analytics department, we looked at that as well,” LaCava said. “We felt like the changes that he made in terms of his pitch repertoire” — Estrada used his cutter more and pitched in the top part of the strike zone more this season, to great effect — “that there were things that made this sustainable. Maybe not to that degree but certainly we felt like he was going to continue to perform at a high level.”
Given how they are already dealing with the expected departures of David Price to free agency and Mark Buehrle to retirement, securing a reliable piece for the rotation was an important order of business for the Jays, who are expected to bring back nearly all of their position players.
Upgrading the rotation remains a priority, LaCava said, but it is not inconceivable the Jays could start the season with the group they already have, which in addition to Estrada, includes Stroman, Dickey and potentially two of Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna. Sanchez and Osuna, who are 23 and 20, respectively, pitched superbly out of the team’s bullpen last season, but are both viewed as starters long term.
“We’re definitely going to continue to try to add to that group,” LaCava said. “But there are five guys and they’re capable guys.”