Driverless vehicles are still far off
It will be at least 10 years before autonomous cars hit the mainstream
Based on recent news reports, one might think that we’re already sharing Ontario’s roadways with autonomous vehicles. Not yet — but maybe soon.
A few test and development vehicles could appear on our roads as early as Jan. 1 as part of a pilot program announced by the Ontario Ministry of Transportation (MTO) in October to permit testing and evaluation of autonomous vehicles (AVs) under prescribed conditions.
That program will require trained and ministry-approved drivers in the vehicles, capable of taking over immediate manual control as needed.
The vehicles must display signs at the front and rear to show that they are AVs and their operation will be limited to test purposes only.
Although specific road usage is not limited, it is expected that initial evaluations will focus on highway diving rather than city conditions.
It’s a logical step because Ontario’s road and weather conditions, particularly in winter, will offer difficult challenges for self-driving vehicles that may not be encountered to the same degree in the U.S states where AV testing is currently allowed — California, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee and Virginia.
In addition, several Ontario suppliers, not just automakers, are deeply involved in the development of AV technology, so it will be helpful for them to have access to local provincial roadways for testing and development.
Tesla’s Autopilot system does not constitute a self-driving vehicle as defined by the Ontario Ministry of Transportation
The serious intent of that program may have been confused recently by widespread reportage of a Tesla Model S with “Autopilot” being driven’ around Toronto.
Despite its name, Tesla’s Autopilot system does not constitute an autonomous vehicle, which is defined by the MTO as “a driverless or self-driving vehicle, capable of sensing its environment using artificial intelligence, sensors and global positioning system co-ordinates to drive itself without human input.”
Rather, the Tesla technology is an Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS), similar to those already offered by BMW and MercedesBenz, which combines a host of now-common systems such as adaptive cruise control, lane-keeping, automatic emergency braking and more.
They’re impressive technologies that are stepping-stones to AVS but they’re not there yet.
To put that progression in perspective, vehicles so equipped are classified as Level 3 in the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) hierarchy of vehicle automation, where Level 0 is no autonomy at all and Level 4 — the highest level — is no driver input at all.
Level 4 vehicles will be designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. The driver will be required to provide destination or navigation input, but won’t be expected to take control at any time during the drive. That initial input might even be provided remotely, so the vehicle could operate without anyone on board.
How far away is that prospect? Several automakers have suggested that highway-capable AVs may be available by 2020.
But how about those fully capable of city operation?
In the opinion of Axel Gern, head of the autonomous vehicle department at Mercedes-Benz Research and Development North America, 10 years would be “a very aggressive timeline.”